This is our weekly synopsis of Politics and economy updates.
Elections. Elections files and uniqueness update
Most of the polls give Harris a slight edge based on Democratic voter enthusiasm and slight polling advantages, though they are often within the margin of error, in battleground states. A few polls show a tie. The most recent Nate Silver analysis gives Trump a slight edge.
Most pundits say this is either candidate’s election to win or lose, so the link probably matters more than uniqueness.
A new, national living wage policy could certainly tilt the election one way or another (happy voters who currently make low wages, alienated voters due to high inflation).
A significant expansion of border surveillance could possibly benefit Harris, though most voters would probably just see it as an expansion of the status quo and not something that would be especially effective.
A change to IPR law impacting the election? Well, good luck with that. There are a lot of cards and hyper-developed link arguments in the camp files, but that’s probably because there aren’t real link cards.
Divided Government | Harris Landslide. DA & Update
This disadvantage argues that Harris will inevitably win the election, but that if she is more popular and wins by a wider margin, this will protect the Democrats’ control of the Senate and flip the House to the Democrats.
It then argues that this will destroy efforts to control the federal debt and make military intervention more likely.
So far, we’ve thought to use it on the PF topic — border surveillance is popular, benefits Harris, this means the end of divided government. Other uses are likely to emerge.
Continuing Resolution DA & Updates
Congress needs to pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government funded past September 30th. This will likely happen unless any policy riders (AKA the Affirmative plan ) are attached. There is a possibility of a rider being attached now (the SAVE act), but if you can win that it won’t be attached, the link story and uniqueness are strong.
We researched a quick update today, but things are largely the same at the moment: It depends on whether the GOP attaches the SAVE Act.
Farm Bill DA & Updates
The farm bill was the most popular camp political capital DA, and that makes some sense because it both needs to be renewed by the end of September and because it will likely come up for revisions in the Spring.
The dilemma with this disadvantage is that there is a lot of evidence that says an extension to the farm bill will pass. That’s a given. A lot of the evidence in the camp files talk about why different reforms to the farm bill need to be implemented; but there is no evidence that Congress is even considering those reforms. So, the uniqueness overwhelms any link for an extension and there is no uniqueness for reforms.
We are working on organizing the farm bill material, but you can access the updates.
Economy Updates
The economy is improving, and inflation is returning close to the 2% target. Inflation links to IPR protections are a bit sketch, but a living wage would be highly inflationary.