Extemp Practice Bank — Environment and Energy, International (IX)

Prepared August 22, 2026 · 10 questions · Part 1 of 2 (domestic USX bank to follow) Forms: 2 What · 2 Should · 2 Will/Can · 2 Is/Are · 2 How/Did

The questions

1. Will the Tropical Forest Forever Facility hit the $10 billion it needs by year's end? — Will/Can
2. Can a split Türkiye–Australia presidency make COP31 work? — Will/Can
3. Is clean energy now outpacing fossil fuels? — Is/Are
4. Is Mission 300 on track to connect 300 million Africans by 2030? — Is/Are
5. Should the EU keep its carbon border tax as written? — Should
6. Should the fossil fuel phase-out be negotiated outside the UN climate process? — Should
7. What has China's grip on critical minerals done to the energy transition? — What
8. What has the Iran war changed about global energy security? — What
9. How did the nuclear revival become a China-and-Russia story? — How/Did
10. How did the $1.3 trillion climate finance goal become a roadmap instead of a commitment? — How/Did

How to use this bank

Draw an envelope of three, prep thirty minutes, speak seven. Read and file the sources under a question before draw day — they are the prep, not the speech.

This area rewards numbers, and the numbers are the argument. A speech that says "renewables are growing fast" loses to one that says solar met more than a quarter of global energy demand growth in 2025 — the first time a modern renewable led — while CO2 still hit a record 38.4 gigatonnes. Both facts are in the same IEA report, and the best speeches use both. Every question here is built so the data cuts in two directions.

Two structural notes. Institutional reports anchor this beat, and they publish on a calendar: the IEA in April and mid-year, COP outcomes in November, agency updates through the spring. Several questions therefore rest on documents from earlier in the cycle rather than this month's headlines; that's the nature of the material, not a gap in the search. Question 1 has a hard deadline — Norway's $3 billion is conditional on the facility reaching $10 billion in sponsor capital by 31 December, so that question resolves this year and is best drilled before then.

Dates marked ~ are approximate because the outlet showed no precise publication date.

Storylines in play

• Solar led global energy demand growth for the first time on record in 2025, with renewable capacity additions hitting 800 GW and battery additions up 40% — even as CO2 rose to a record 38.4 Gt (IEA, Apr 24).
• Renewables are set to overtake coal in global generation in 2026, though power-sector CO2 is forecast to rise 1% this year on gas-to-coal switching (IEA, ~Jul 2026).
• COP31 convenes in Antalya on 9–20 November under an unprecedented arrangement: Türkiye hosts and holds the presidency, Australia's Chris Bowen presides over negotiations, and the Pacific hosts the pre-COP.
• The EU's carbon border tax entered its definitive phase on 1 January, triggering financial obligations on importers — and a sustained challenge from India, which has raised CBAM at the WTO 29 times.
• China's critical-minerals controls hardened. Beijing holds roughly 90% of rare earth processing; the IEA estimates full implementation of the October 2025 extraterritorial measures — suspended until November 2026 — would put $6.5 trillion a year of downstream production at risk.
• Fifty-plus governments met at Santa Marta in April to build a fossil-fuel transition coalition outside the UNFCCC, after the push for a roadmap failed in the COP30 text (Carbon Brief, Apr 30).
• The forests fund launched at $6.7 billion against a $125 billion target, with Norway's $3 billion contingent on total sponsor capital reaching $10 billion by the end of 2026.
• Mission 300 passed 50 million connections across 40 countries in June, roughly double its launch pace, with over $50 billion pledged (World Bank, Jun 16).
• Nuclear construction is at a 30-year high and geographically narrow — 78 GW under construction in 15 countries, half in China, with 94% of the past decade's construction starts using Chinese or Russian designs.
• The Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz in February, through which roughly 80% of Asia's oil moves, and reset energy-security planning across importing economies.
• The $1.3 trillion climate finance target produced a roadmap, not an obligation — against roughly $200 billion actually reaching developing countries in 2025.

Questions

1. Will the Tropical Forest Forever Facility hit the $10 billion it needs by year's end?

Form: Will/Can · Positions: A — yes, the fund has five investor countries, momentum from Davos and the April governance build-out, and Norway's conditional pledge creates its own pressure to close the gap; B — no, it launched at roughly half the initial target, the UK declined outright, and no major new sponsor has appeared since the spring

1. COP30 ends with over US$6.7 billion for the TFFF — Tropical Forest Forever Facility, 2025-11-27 · [A] The pledge ledger in detail — Norway $3bn, Germany €1bn, Brazil and Indonesia $1bn each, France €500m with conditions — and 66 endorsing countries.
2. Will a New Fund Fill the Gap Left By COP30's Forest Failure? — Earth.org, 2025-12-03 · [B] The condition that defines this question: Norway pays only if sponsor capital reaches $10bn by the end of 2026.
3. What to know about the Tropical Forest Forever Facility from COP30 — Project Drawdown, 2026-06-18 · [Both] A mid-year assessment: funding well short of expectations, with legal, operational, and financial mechanisms still unsettled.
4. Brazil's Tropical Forest Protection Fund Launches With $6.6 Billion — Will It Work? — Health Policy Watch, 2025-11-22 · [B] The Global Forest Coalition's arithmetic — that $5.6bn cannot credibly attract $100bn — against UNEP's finding that forest finance needs to triple to $300bn.
5. What is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility? — World Resources Institute, 2025-11-26 · [A] Why the model works if capitalized, and the explicit warning that failure to add sponsors would cost momentum in 2026.
6. Brazil Launches Tropical Forests Forever Facility — World Resources Institute, 2025-11-06 · [Background] The launch terms: $125bn target, $10bn sought initially from governments and philanthropies.
7. Could Brazil's 'Tropical Forest Forever' fund help tackle climate change? — Carbon Brief, 2025-11-07 · [Data] The eligibility rules a speech needs: 74 candidate countries, deforestation under 0.5% of forest area, 20% of funds to Indigenous peoples.
8. A New Tropical Forest Fund Will Pay Countries, Locals and Indigenous Tribes to Protect Their Trees — Inside Climate News, 2025-11-22 · [A] Why this model is meant to succeed where carbon offsets failed.