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Cooperation to end the Ukraine War Now
Laura Irwin, 2-12, 25, https://thehill.com/policy/international/5140156-marco-rubio-marc-fogel-release-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war/, The Hill
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the release of American Marc Fogel from Russian captivity is a “good sign” for the U.S. and Russian President Vladimir Putin to work in cooperation to end the war in Ukraine. Rubio joined NewsNation’s “CUOMO” on Tuesday to discuss Fogel’s return to the U.S., as he was on his way to meet the freed American. Host Chris Cuomo asked the new State Department leader about potential that the deal struck between President Trump and Putin could be a step toward bringing an end to the nearly three-year war with Ukraine. “I wouldn’t link the two because they’re not linked in the sense that there was some sort of understanding on Ukraine in exchange for this,” Rubio said. “What I would say about it though, is that if you can’t even get an American held under these circumstances released and the chances of working together in good faith are not none.” “So, it’s certainly a good sign,” he added. Rubio’s remarks come just before Fogel landed on U.S. soil and had an emotional homecoming with Trump at the White House. He expressed his gratitude to the president and the U.S. for bringing him home, and Trump expressed appreciation for the Russian authorities who agreed to release the schoolteacher, calling the terms of the deal “very fair.” Up Next – Border officials dealing with frustrations in immigration crackdown The exchange is the first deal negotiated between the current administration and the Kremlin. Trump also signaled that the deal — which Russian officials called a prisoner swap, without identifying the other person released — could be a step toward ending the war, even as Rubio argued there may not be a direct link. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates “Obviously, the situation in Ukraine is complex and difficult, and it’s one [that will] require a lot of work, a lot of hard diplomacy,” Rubio said. “It’s a war the President’s made clear he wants to see end.” “So, this is good, I mean, it’s not indicative that it’s going to make it easier to do a deal, but if you can’t get an American who shouldn’t have been there out, then the chances of doing something far more difficult are not very high,” he told Cuomo.
The ICC has existed for more than 23 years and only 14 people have been convicted
Molly Quell, 2-9, 25, Time, What Is the International Criminal Court and How Might Trump’s Sanctions Impact It?, https://time.com/7214176/what-is-international-criminal-court-how-might-trump-sanctions-impact/
Judges at the court have convicted 11 people. Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga was the first, sentenced in 2012 to 14 years in prison for conscripting child soldiers. The court was created in 2002 to be a last stop for the most serious international crimes: war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and aggression. The United States and Israel are not members, but 125 other countries have signed the court’s foundational treaty, the Rome Statute. The ICC becomes involved when nations are unable or unwilling to prosecute crimes on their territory. The court’s newest member, Ukraine, formally joined in January. Judges at the court have convicted 11 people. Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga was the first, sentenced in 2012 to 14 years in prison for conscripting child soldiers. A Congolese warlord known as “The Terminator” was convicted in July 2019 for atrocities committed during a brutal ethnic conflict in a mineral-rich region of Congo in 2002-2003. Bosco Ntaganda was given a 30-year prison sentence. In 2021, the court convicted Dominic Ongwen of dozens of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including multiple killings and forced marriages in Uganda. Ongwen was a one-time child soldier who morphed into a brutal commander of a notorious rebel group known as the Lord’s Resistance Army. What will these sanctions do? The exact impact is unclear. Trump’s executive order invokes emergency powers from several different laws to allow the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. State Department to issue specific sanctions. The court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, is a likely target, as is anyone involved in the Netanyahu investigation, including the three judges who issued the arrest warrants. The sanctions could also target the court itself, grinding its operations to a halt. During his previous term in office, Trump imposed sanctions on former prosecutor Fatou Bensouda and one of her deputies over her investigation of alleged crimes in Afghanistan. The probe covered offenses allegedly committed by the Taliban, American troops and U.S. foreign intelligence operatives dating back to 2002. Trump’s sanctions blocked Bensouda from accessing any U.S.-based financial assets of court employees and barred her and her immediate family from entering the United States. President Joe Biden lifted the sanctions when he took office in 2021. Why has the court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu? In November, a pretrial panel of judges issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas’ military chief, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza. The warrants said there was reason to believe Netanyahu and Gallant used “starvation as a method of warfare” by restricting humanitarian aid, and intentionally targeted civilians in Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Israeli officials deny the charges. The warrant marked the first time that a sitting leader of a major Western power has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by a global court. The decision makes Netanyahu and the others internationally wanted suspects, putting them at risk of arrest when they travel abroad and potentially further isolating them. Do these sanctions jeopardize current trials? The court is currently without a single trial ahead for the first time since it arrested its first suspect in 2006.
ICC sanctions do not undermine the court
Bernd Debusmann Jr, BBC News, White House, 2-7, 24, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2p19l24g2o, Dozens of countries back International Criminal Court after Trump sanctions, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2p19l24g2o
Dozens of countries have expressed “unwavering support” for the International Criminal Court (ICC) after US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on its staff. A majority of member states, including the UK, Germany and France, said that the ICC was “a vital pillar of the international justice system”. Trump announced the sanctions after hosting Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the first foreign leader to visit him since returning to power. Last year, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza – which Israel denies – as well as a Hamas commander. The US has condemned the court’s “shameful moral equivalency” between Israel and Hamas. The US and Israel do not recognise the authority of the ICC, the only global court with powers to prosecute individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. It has also previously launched investigations into US citizens. The ICC counts 125 member states around the world, including the UK and many European nations. The UK, France and Germany were among the 79 signatories to a joint statement issued on Friday to condemn Trump’s executive order. Australia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Italy were among the absent. What is the ICC and why has Trump sanctioned it? Reuters People walk past the rubble of destroyed buildings, inJabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip, on 30 January 2025Reuters Earlier on Friday, the ICC had called on its member states and global civil society to “stand united for justice and fundamental human rights.” It pledged to continue “providing justice and hope to millions of innocent victims of atrocities across the world”. The ICC last year issued arrest warrants for US-allied Israeli leaders, and a Hamas commander, over the war in Gaza. ICC prosecutors have said there are “reasonable grounds” to suggest Netanyahu, his former defence minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas’s Mohammed Deif – who was killed last year – bear “criminal responsibility for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity”. But a White House memo circulated on Thursday accused the ICC of creating a “shameful moral equivalency” between Hamas and Israel by issuing the warrants at the same time. Trump’s order said the ICC’s recent actions “set a dangerous precedent” which threatened to “infringe upon the sovereignty of the United States”. It argued the ICC “undermines” the national security and foreign policy work of Washington and its allies. The order also said the US and Israel “are thriving democracies with militaries that strictly adhere to the laws of war”. The sanctions were announced while Netanyahu was on a visit to Washington. The list of affected individuals has not yet been announced, but the sanctions could target people who work in ICC investigations. Sanctions could include financial and visa restrictions placed on individuals and their families. The court’s technical and IT operations – including evidence gathering – could also be affected. Observers have voiced fears that victims of alleged atrocities may hesitate to testify. The court’s inaugural chief prosecutor has told the BBC how the rest of the world responds will be most important. “It’s a challenge for the all the state parties – for all Europe, UK, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Japan, New Zealand, Australia – are they going to let Mr Trump to become the global president?” Luis Moreno Ocampo told the BBC Newshour programme. The UN has called for the measure to be reversed, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the ICC “must be able to freely pursue the fight against global impunity”. But Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said he “strongly” commended Trump’s executive order. He claimed the ICC’s actions were “immoral and have no legal basis”, accusing the court of not operating “in accordance with international law”. 3:10 Can Trump really take ownership of Gaza? The US has repeatedly rejected any ICC jurisdiction over American officials or citizens, and has accused the court of placing constraints on Israel’s right to self-defence, while ignoring Iran and anti-Israel groups. During his first term in office, Trump imposed sanctions on ICC officials who were investigating whether US forces had committed war crimes in Afghanistan. This included a travel ban and asset freezes against former chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda. Those sanctions were lifted by President Joe Biden’s administration. But during his last weeks in office, Biden also criticised the ICC’s warrant for Netanyahu, calling the move “outrageous” and saying there was no equivalence between Israel and Hamas. In response to efforts to what they described as attempts to challenge the ICC’s authority, nine nations – including South Africa and Malaysia – launched the Hague Group last month in an effort to defend the court and its rulings. Trump’s signing of his latest executive order follows his announcement of a plan for the US to “take over” Gaza, resettle its Palestinian population and turn the territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. After Arab leaders and the UN condemned the idea, the US president restated it on his Truth Social social media platform on Thursday.
Economic instability and downturn now
Marks, 2-12, 25, Gene Marks is founder of The Marks Group, a small-business consulting firm, The Hill, The long and bumpy road to the new Trump economy
What a roller coaster we have been on since President Trump’s inauguration! Democrats are up in arms. Republicans are cheering. Agencies are being shut down. Regulations are being rolled back. Tax cuts are looming. Government pork is being slashed. Our president is a businessman, and he’s certainly been getting down to business over the past few weeks. So this is good for business, right? Maybe in the long term. But right now, Trump is creating more headaches for businesses of all sizes. And I’m not expecting these challenges to go away any time soon. Take the workplace. For the past four years we’ve complained about all the Biden-era regulations that have increased our costs. With Trump in office, shouldn’t these headaches go away? They will, at the federal level. Federal minimum wages will likely stay the same. Overtime rules have already been rolled back to pre-Biden levels. Harassment and discrimination requirements are now mostly toothless, thanks to an Equal Employment Opportunity Commission that has been reduced to just two of five commissioners. Worker classification regulations are in the courts. Business ownership requirements are at a standstill. Fewer, if any, rules are expected to come from the Department of Labor, Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, National Labor Relations Board and Occupational Safety and Health Administration over the next few years (with the exception of the Labor Department, whose designated secretary is pro-union and could be a wild card). But mostly, it’s good for businesses, right? I’m not really sure. That’s because with the federal government backing away, many states are stepping in to pick up the slack. Several states now have tougher overtime rules than the federal government. Thirty states have a higher minimum wage than the national level, with more than 25 states and 65 cities overseeing increases this year alone. Twenty-one states and localities have or are proposing new laws around paid time off and mandatory leave. Other states are requiring mandatory retirement plans. A number of states are rolling out new legislation on using AI in the workplace. This trend was happening even before Trump took office, but given that he often advocates pushing issues to local levels, it’s very likely to grow. So now instead of dealing with one federal regulation, businesses have to deal with countless rules at the state level. And it’s not just their home state. It could be any state where there’s operations or remote employees. That’s why so many companies are turning desperately to HR companies like Paychex and ADP or hiring Professional Employer Organizations to keep up with the compliance. They just can’t do it any more on their own. Then there are tariffs. I understand that the president wants to level the playing field and gain concessions from countries on issues like immigration and the import of narcotics, but his policies are creating uncertainty. It’s unsure what countries are being targeted, what tariffs are in effect or on hold, what products specifically apply or even what the future is. The safest thing to do is to buy only American products, but this isn’t always realistic. There’s been 60 years of a post-war global economy, and key materials that many businesses use still must be purchased overseas. Trump wants to see more manufacturing in America, but this can’t happen overnight. Businesses can deal with tariffs. But they can’t do business when things are this uncertain. Will taxes come down? The president and the GOP, while campaigning, promised to make permanent many of the provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which would result in lower long-term rates and higher deductions. But this is not a done deal by any stretch. The Republican Party holds a slim majority in Congress and Democrats will rightfully be asking how these permanent tax cuts will be paid for. When will this be resolved? This summer? The fall? Taxes are among the largest — if not the largest — expenditures for a business. Smart managers incorporate tax planning as part of their strategic decisions. It’s impossible to do this while we wait for clarity. Elon Musk is doing a yeoman’s job with DOGE. Budgets are being cut and many examples of questionable funding are being frozen or stopped altogether. But there are countless small businesses and nonprofits who do perform great work for the government and are facing a cash flow crisis. Across-the-board stoppages of payments can be crippling to these business owners. It’s important work, what Musk is doing. But there will be collateral damage from these changes, and unfortunately many small businesses will be part of that collateral. Can Musk find the cost savings to help pay for the president’s tax cuts and reduce the deficit while minimizing this pain? Can businesses wait around to find out? None of this is unexpected. For anyone who was listening, Trump clearly told the world what he would be doing if elected. Talk to any business owner — particularly the ones that support the president — and you’ll see that they’re willing to give him some rope. Few supporters fully support all of this actions. But agree or not, they know there are a lot of problems that need to be fixed, and they appreciate his energy and determination to do what he promised to do. They know that this won’t happen overnight, and they’re prepared for disruption. The promise is that, in the long term, things will shake out for the better. Maybe so. But it will be a very bumpy road for most businesses in the meantime.
The newly appointed Under Secretary of State is a racist. This means US influence will increase racism in the ICC. None of their evidence assumes this
Ellsworth Toohey, 2—3, 25, New pick for high-level State Department job: “Competent white men must be in charge if you want things to work.”, https://boingboing.net/2025/02/03/new-pick-for-high-level-state-department-job-competent-white-men-must-be-in-charge-if-you-want-things-to-work.html
Remember way back in the Before Times (like, 2018) when being caught at a white nationalist conference would tank your political career? Not anymore! Meet Darren Beattie, your new acting State Department Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, because the guy who tweets that “competent white men must be in charge” is apparently exactly who we want representing America to the world. Yes, this is the same galaxy-brain who got kicked out of Trump’s first administration for hanging with white nationalists, but now he’s the belle of the Mar-a-Lago ball. Rolling Stone reports that on January 6, while other MAGA patriots were smearing their doo doo on the wall to prove their superiority, Beattie was busy telling Black people to “learn their place” and “bend the knee to MAGA.” Nothing says “I’m definitely not racist” like telling Ibram X. Kendi to “learn his proper role in our society.” This walking Dunning-Kruger graph actually claimed that working-class white men have it worse than Uyghurs in China. Yes, the genocide-experiencing Uyghurs. Beattie has it worse than them. Poor guy! Not sure how he got so fat and sleek on a starvation diet, but I guess his white guy superpowers are extra special at calorie conservation. And where’s Little Marco Rubio in all this? Doing what he does best — pretending this is all totally normal and fine while his State Department becomes a safe space for the “women be shopping, minorities be complaining” crowd. To quote Beattie himself: “Competent white men must be in charge if you want things to work.” Which is exactly what you’d expect to hear from a mediocre white dude with the confidence of a mediocre white dude who thinks “attended white nationalist conference” is a LinkedIn skill.
Trump gutting US soft power
Grace Segers, 2-6, 25, https://newrepublic.com/article/191174/trump-undermining-soft-power-consequences
President Donald Trump’s recent actions on foreign policy—from his efforts to gut a key international aid organization to his threats to impose tariffs on critical allies, to the allocation of power to a billionaire adviser—could result in a decline in the global American “soft power” that the United States has enjoyed for decades. While the Trump administration has little control over cultural soft power—typically defined as the influence a country has without turning to coercive measures—the recent foreign policy actions taken by the president will likely have far-reaching effects on political soft power, from potentially engendering distrust among long-standing allies to propelling struggling nations to seek assistance from China rather than the U.S. This ultimately may result in diminished U.S. prestige around the world, and the enhanced standing of our geopolitical rivals. This is not a new concern. Trump has implicitly expressed his disdain for soft power since he first took office eight years ago, with his emphasis on an “America First” foreign policy that devalues traditional alliances and abjures the notion that foreign assistance packages might have a positive sum outcome for the U.S. This ethos has been back on display since he took office a second time last month. After Trump froze foreign aid last week, an action that has already had repercussions for companies and contractors across the world, billionaire adviser Elon Musk—aided by a cadre of young engineers—began to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID. Musk announced on social media platform X that Trump “agreed” that his Department of Government Efficiency, an unofficial agency known as DOGE, should shut USAID down. The suspension of foreign aid and the gutting of USAID will signal to allies and adversaries alike that the U.S. is “an untrustworthy actor,” said Daniel Drezner, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. “The whole essence of soft power as a concept is that you’re doing well by doing good, and that the promotion of American values and ideals and the execution of competent policy … are seen as natural attractors for the rest of the world,” said Drezner. “We’re no longer going to look like we’re competent in policy, because we’ve disrupted this for no reason whatsoever, and we’re clearly not promoting American values anymore, at least globally.” Soft power has been an expression of American cultural and political global hegemony since the Cold War, from the careful construction of alliances to counter other powers—primarily Russia in the previous century and primarily China in the current one—to the international proliferation of American music, fashion, and fast food. Soft power manifests itself in a variety of ways, from the substantive to the quotidian. It can come in the form of tangible material benefits, or it could simply serve to expand the aura of American values. For example, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, is a foreign aid program credited with saving more than 25 million lives, particularly on the African continent. It has expanded American soft power, but the same can be said of the presence of a McDonald’s restaurant in dozens of countries worldwide. (Trump halted disbursement of funds from PEPFAR shortly after taking office.) Drezner argued that gutting USAID could benefit China and Russia, by convincing countries that might otherwise turn to the U.S. for assistance that Americans are unreliable. With this vacuum thus created, China has a freer hand to make the case to other countries that they are more stable partners; Russia can now argue that their conviction that the U.S. was capricious was correct all along. “Russia can make the case of, ‘See? They are what we told you they are. And are we really that much different, are we really so much worse?’” Drezner said. If dismantling the foreign aid apparatus causes other countries to view the United States with suspicion, so too will the threat of tariffs on allies. This week, Trump delayed by 30 days plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, the country’s two largest trading partners, after the countries made pledges to beef up border security. (It remains unclear whether this will result in increased deployments from these two nations or merely a continuance of pledges that had already been made.) Imposing these tariffs would be in contravention to the trade agreement Trump himself negotiated in 2018—a move that international observers would interpret as another layer of capriciousness. Tariffs on Chinese imports did go into effect on Tuesday. Although the tariffs against our North American trade partners were postponed, they may still be instated next month; Trump has also threatened to tax imports from the European Union. Mexico and Canada have threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods, which could in turn have a negative effect on all three economies and drive up prices in the U.S. But Trump’s temporary decision to back down on the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports has further exacerbated uncertainty among foreign partners, said Elizabeth Saunders, political science professor at Columbia University. Not only can allies not trust that the U.S. won’t target them next, they can’t be sure Trump will actually carry out his threats. “I think diversification away from dependence on the U.S. is going to be the name of the game,” Saunders said.
Deal coming on the Ukraine
Charles Gasparino, 1-25, 24, Business elites truly believe Trump could be on the verge of solving one of the world’s most difficult problems: The Ukraine War, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/business-elites-truly-believe-trump-could-be-on-the-verge-of-solving-one-of-the-world-s-most-difficult-problems-the-ukraine-war/ar-AA1xRjMu?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=d5cd483d540f4ae994e9aa6c1e12b688&ei=19
DAVOS, Switzerland — Donald Trump’s first week in office was a whirlwind: executive orders on everything from closing the border to ending federal Diversity, Equity and Inclusion mandates. Social media postings announced new business initiatives and put world leaders on notice that a new sheriff is in town. Valentine Fun for Students – Activities & Adorable Crafts Discount School Supply Valentine Fun for Students – Activities & Adorable Crafts Ad Heads were spinning among the business and political elites, both back home and here at the World Economic Forum, the annual confab of the globalist crowd where I’ve been hanging for the past few days. That’s because the decidedly non-globalist Trump, people here truly believe, could be on the verge of solving maybe the most intractable problem the world faces: The nearly three-year armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Until now, it showed no signs of ending and even threatened nuclear war. Yet after a few well-timed comments from The Donald about how his alleged man-crush Vladimir Putin needs to get to the negotiating table, there’s fresh optimism that the conflict will end and war-ravaged Ukraine could once again start receiving flows of private capital brokered by the big banks. Recall, it was around this time about a year ago when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky began wooing investors for redevelopment money. ‘Trump Would’ve Stopped the War in a Day’: Russia’s Putin Shocks World With Praises for US President Ukraine has an educated population where English is almost a second language and a resilient people as evidenced by how its smallish army has repelled the Russian war machine. What’s not to like if you’re looking to rebuild the country and want a return on capital? Well for starters, the continued conflict with Russia is a no-go for private money; you don’t risk capital while the missiles are still flying. Zelensky was told as much last year in Davos, and just days ago when he arrived here to press the flesh. Offer Vlad can’t refuse But there’s a difference this time around in Davos, my reporting indicates, and it’s summed up perfectly by a foreign diplomat at the popular Ukrainian breakfast I attended at the invitation of Ukrainian businessman Victor Pinchuk. The diplomat reminded the audience that a “rainmaker” named Donald Trump is now in charge of the world’s leading superpower and he’s looking to make an offer that Putin can’t refuse to end the war. As in the US, even the global elite knows the world got a huge upgrade in Trump over sleepy Joe Biden. Yes, Biden threw billions of dollars into Ukraine’s war effort but much of the most needed war material came in fits and spurts; he never made the case to the American people as to why Ukraine is important to US global interests. He ignored massive domestic problems, i.e. inflation, the border, and crime, which undermined his case for Ukraine aid. Trump is at bottom a pragmatist and he’s ready to wield American power in a smart way when it advances our interests. There’s a backlash now — Americans want to fix the home front first. Trump put a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid, which includes Ukraine. Yet here’s why there’s hope for the future of Ukraine, at least according to the bankers and diplomats following this saga: The rainmaker wants a deal to end the war and fast; he said as much in no uncertain terms during the confab, one of the event’s major highlights. Best Walking Shoes for Men to Wear All Day Without Discomfort Men’s Sneaker Best Walking Shoes for Men to Wear All Day Without Discomfort Ad Dealing with the despot Trump isn’t the Putin lackey the left spins to its media sources. People in Davos reminded me that during Trump I, he supplied Ukraine with deadly Javelin missiles after Obama refused. He’s also been briefed on the brutality of this war, understands the treachery of Putin, and the strategic importance of Ukraine in Europe with its strong military and bounty of natural resources, I am told. Trump during his first term got along with Putin, but that’s how he does business even with despots. I’ve been covering him for years as a real estate developer and now in national politics, and let’s just say Trump likes you until he doesn’t. More than anything, Trump hates being outmaneuvered by anyone, Putin included. And now he’s telling Putin to get to the negotiating table to stop this thing or else. The “or else” might be something other than weapons, like real economic sanctions with teeth. Ramping up oil production might depress prices enough to put Russia’s oil-dependent economy into further economic despair; tariffs on Russian goods and additional sanctions could send the Russian economy into a full-scale meltdown, as Trump reminded his pal in a recent social media post. Here in Davos, I both attended and moderated sessions at a private confab hosted by Pinchuk; I was struck by how Ukrainians and even globalist bankers embraced Trump’s overall message including his position that there are limits to American aid. The Europeans need to step up in ways they so far haven’t to prevent a broader conflict on their soil. Putin is of course a treacherous man, but in dealmaking with Trump, he’s playing in the big leagues. Yes, he has nukes, but so do we, as Trump has reminded him. If there is a solid peace deal, and people here are increasingly confident that with Trump there will be, the bloodshed will stop and the private money will start flowing.
Massive bipartisan political opposition to the ICC
Clare Foran, 1-9, 25, https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/politics/house-icc-sanctions-bill-israel/index.html, House passes International Criminal Court sanctions bill in response to Netanyahu warrant
The House passed a bill on Thursday to sanction International Criminal Court officials – in response to the court issuing an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ICC’s targeting of Netanyahu has sparked backlash from Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The GOP-led Senate is expected to next take up the bill. There remains widespread bipartisan support on Capitol Hill for US military assistance to Israel, but scrutiny over US support for Israel’s war against Hamas has intensified as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has grown worse. The issue has opened up a rift within the Democratic Party as progressives have been highly critical of the Israeli government. The ICC issued arrest warrants last year for Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and a senior Hamas official, accusing them of war crimes during and after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel. The prime minister’s office has dismissed the warrants as “absurd and antisemitic.” The legislation calls for the warrants against the Israeli officials to be “condemned in the strongest possible terms.” And, according to the legislative text, the measure would impose sanctions with respect to the court over “any effort to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute any protected person of the United States and its allies.” The sanctions include prohibiting US property transactions and blocking and revoking visas. Headquartered at The Hague in the Netherlands, the ICC was established in 2002 and is tasked with prosecuting individuals for crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. The ICC does not have its own enforcement mechanism and has relied on countries’ support for arrests. Israel, like the United States, is not a member of the ICC and has challenged the court’s jurisdiction over its actions in the conflict. The House passed the ICC sanctions bill in the last session of Congress by a vote of 247 to 155, with 42 Democrats joining Republicans in support, but it was not brought to a vote in the Senate, which was then under Democratic control. Congressional Republicans are bringing it back up now that they control both the House and the Senate.
ICC is the foundation of international law
UN Newswire, January 10, 2025, US: Rights experts urge Senate to reject bill sanctioning the International Criminal Court, https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1158896
The ICC was established under a 1998 treaty known as the Rome Statute. The US is not a party to the statute, along with dozens of other nations, but 125 countries are members of the Court. It has the mandate to investigate and prosecute individuals for the grave international crimes of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. It is based in the Hague, in the Netherlands. The experts recalled that the ICC is the legacy of the Nuremberg trials which brought Nazi leaders to account and the commitment to never allow heinous crimes, such as those committed during the Second World War, to go unpunished. “The tireless work of brave legal professionals at the ICC is the main driver for accountability. The work of its prosecutors becomes the foundation upon which our efforts to uphold the integrity of the system of international law is resting,” they said.
More pressure through the ICC is needed to overthrow the regime in Myanmr. The alternative is massive human rights abuses, cybercrime, and an eventual failed state
Reid, 12-16, 24, Alan Reid Associate Professor in Law, University of Bradford, International Criminal Court goes after Myanmar military chief after nearly five years of war, https://theconversation.com/international-criminal-court-goes-after-myanmar-military-chief-after-nearly-five-years-of-war-245510
Nearly five years after Myanmar’s civil war began, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, has requested an arrest warrant for the leader of the country’s military regime, Min Aung Hlaing. The application alleges that Min Aung Hlaing orchestrated two major crimes against humanity, namely the deportation and persecution of Rohingya Muslims. The arrest warrant application, which was filed in late November, is significant. It is the first to be issued against the highest-ranking official from Myanmar. And it is also slated to be one of a number of pending arrest warrants relating to Myanmar and the treatment of its Rohingya minority. The history of Myanmar is incredibly tumultuous, particularly in the period following its independence from the UK in 1948. This tumult has been accompanied by widely documented gross violations of human rights. Indeed, in November 2019 the ICC launched an investigation into historic alleged human rights violations that took place between 2016 and 2017 in the country and in neighbouring Bangladesh. During this period, a Rohingya militant group called the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army attacked a number of Myanmar police posts, killing both police and security personnel. The Myanmar army, which is known as the Tatmadaw, then undertook counterinsurgency measures that allegedly involved the razing of almost 300 villages, attacks upon civilians, and the rape and sexual assault of women and girls. Against this backdrop of violence and intimidation, the near 1 million strong Rohingya minority population of Myanmar has been decimated, with almost three-quarters of them fleeing the country and entering Bangladesh. Once there, they have been subjected to sustained violence from criminal and armed groups operating in transit and refugee camps, extortion and harassment from the Bangladeshi police, and forced return to Myanmar. Beyond these targeted attacks on the Rohingya, the current situation in Myanmar is of immense concern. Min Aung Hlaing seized power in 2021 by deposing the country’s democratically elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. Since then, Myanmar has descended into civil war, repression, poverty and economic turmoil. One great story every day The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, reported in June 2024 that over 5,000 Myanmar civilians have been killed by the military since 2021. He noted that over 400 of these people have either been burned to death or had their bodies burned after execution. These horrifying statistics are probably just the tip of the iceberg, given that these are the only verified atrocities documented through credible sources. More widely, the UN estimates that over 3 million people are displaced across Myanmar, while 18 million people out of a total population of approximately 54.5 million, require humanitarian assistance because of a lack of housing, food or access to electricity and heating. Swathes of the country still face attacks on their homes by the military or by armed gangs and criminals who have taken advantage of the lawlessness and endemic corruption. These criminal gangs operate with impunity and often the explicit support of the regime. This has resulted in Myanmar becoming a cybercrime, human trafficking and opium-producing hotspot in Asia. Hospitals and schools are struggling to operate as normal, and the dire economic situation has led to rampant inflation and high levels of unemployment. Climate change is, at the same time, also exacerbating extreme weather events such as typhoons, monsoons and floods, which have led to yet more deaths, starvation and homelessness. Unsurprisingly, significant numbers of people living in Myanmar have sought to flee the country, undertaking perilous journeys by land and sea. It is calculated that there are now hundreds of organisations opposed to the regime operating successfully in Myanmar. These disparate groups of militias, defence forces and armies have collectively inflicted numerous defeats on the military in recent years. But, as is unfortunately all too predictable from human history, these successes have resulted in ever more desperate reprisals and repression. Aerial bombardment of rebel-held areas has been relentless and freedom of speech is heavily curtailed. At the same time, arbitrary arrest is common and criminal trials are often just show trials organised before hastily arranged kangaroo courts. People frequently “disappear” and those who are actually detained face terrible sanitary conditions in jail, lack of food, water and access to legal representation, as well as forced labour and the ever-present threat of sexual and non-sexual violence. Those detained at military sites and former royal palaces, rather than at police stations, also risk being tortured during their interrogation. In such an environment, it is not surprising to see an increase in the number of deaths occurring in custody. The overarching risk is of Myanmar becoming a failed state. This could open up a dangerous power vacuum in an already fragile region of the world. The ICC’s impending arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing should keep the situation in Myanmar in the public consciousness. It is to be hoped that political, diplomatic and legal pressure increases sufficiently to result in both the overthrow of the regime and subsequent attainment of justice for its millions of victims.