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Intl Extemp Topics and Questions: June 5-June 15

Key Questions/Issues to Think About

  1. How will the new U.S.-Ukraine security pact impact the geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe, and what are the potential consequences for U.S.-Russia relations?
  2. Analyze the effectiveness of the G7’s efforts to support Ukraine’s defense and deterrence capabilities against Russian aggression. What more could be done to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security?
  3. Discuss the implications of the attempted assassination of a Slovak leader on European stability and the potential for increased tensions in the region.
  4. Assess the significance of President Biden’s visit to France on the 80th anniversary of D-Day in strengthening transatlantic bonds and promoting Western unity.
  5. Examine the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the role of international diplomacy, particularly Secretary of State Blinken’s efforts, in promoting cease-fires and preventing wider regional conflicts.
  6. Evaluate the impact of Mexico’s unheralded busing program on migration patterns in Latin America and its potential to address the root causes of migration.
  7. Analyze the challenges faced by African nations in ensuring free and fair elections, as exemplified by the controversies surrounding the South African general election and the appointment of former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta to head the African Union Election Observation Mission.

Europe/Diplomacy

Diplomacy in Europe

President Joe Biden is traveling to France this week to mark the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion in Normandy. He will use the occasion to underscore the need for a strong transatlantic alliance in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Biden will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and deliver a speech at Pointe du Hoc about “the existential fight between dictatorship and freedom”.

The D-Day anniversary comes at the start of a critical few weeks for European security, with several high-level summits planned:

Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have some policy differences regarding European defense and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. But they will look to project unity and resolve against Russia during Biden’s visit.

Macron told Ukraine at the D-Day ceremony: “We will not fail you.” However, Biden’s absence from the Ukraine peace summit, along with that of China and some other key countries, raises questions about the relevance and validity of Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan without Russia’s participation.

As the last of the D-Day veterans pass on, there are concerns that the post-WWII era of American global leadership is also fading into history. Rising populism and geopolitical threats from Russia and China are testing Western democracies and alliances like never before. Biden aims to show that the U.S. is still committed to leading the free world, but his potential successor Donald Trump has very different views on America’s role and responsibilities.

In summary, President Biden’s trip to France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day comes at a pivotal moment for the Western alliance system that emerged from World War II. With war raging again in Europe and other global crises mounting, Biden will look to the heroism and sacrifice of the “greatest generation” to inspire today’s leaders to defend democracy and freedom. But growing divisions at home and abroad raise doubts about whether the U.S. and its allies can sustain that mission into the future. The upcoming summits on Ukraine, G7 issues, and NATO will test the strength and unity of the West as it faces historic challenges on multiple fronts.

Russian Sabotage

How should the US and/or NATO respond to apparent Russian hybrid attacks in Europe

Poland has arrested 18 people on allegations of planning hostile acts on behalf of Russia, Belarus.

Ten of those arrested since December were directly involved in planning various forms of sabotage, such as arson, across Poland, according to Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak. The UK announced it will expel Russia’s defense attaché, whom they accuse of being an unacknowledged military intelligence officer, as part of measures against Moscow due to its harmful activities across Europe. The UK government cited criminal cases in London involving allegations of espionage and sabotage by individuals acting on behalf of Russia.

In many, two German-Russian nationals were arrested on charges of espionage for Russia and planning potential attacks on international military sites, including those of the United States They allegedly scouted some of the targeted sites in person, collecting photos and videos as evidence.

Poland has detained and charged three men – two Belarusians and one Polish citizen – on suspicion of carrying out acts of sabotage, in particular arson, on behalf of Russia. Separately, a Ukrainian national was indicted for allegedly trying to incite espionage by offering a Polish citizen money to photograph military equipment being transported to Ukraine.
According to U.S. and European officials, Russia is intensifying its sabotage efforts across Europe, targeting railway networks, military bases, and other sites used to supply arms to Ukraine as part of a broader strategy to damage Western support for Ukraine. European governments have expelled Russian spies from their capitals as intelligence agents monitor a surge in clandestine sabotage activities in Europe, which they attribute to a Russian campaign aimed at weakening Ukraine’s war effort.
These articles paint a picture of an extensive Russian sabotage and espionage campaign being carried out across Europe, likely in retaliation for the West’s strong support of Ukraine. European security agencies appear to be on high alert, increasingly sharing intelligence and making arrests to counter this growing threat from Russia.

Will Russia use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark warning to the West, cautioning that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or territorial integrity are threatened. During a meeting with senior editors of international news agencies in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Putin addressed the risks of nuclear war over Ukraine, emphasizing that the West should not take Russia’s nuclear doctrine lightly.
Putin accused the West of repeatedly engaging in nuclear saber-rattling against Russia, dismissing such claims as erroneous. He pointed out that it was the United States that had used nuclear weapons against Japan in World War Two. The Russian president stated, “For some reason, the West believes that Russia will never use it. We have a nuclear doctrine. Look what it says. If someone’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible for us to use all means at our disposal.”
Putin’s comments come amidst heightened tensions between Russia and the West over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Russian military recently announced plans for drills simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons, a move seen as a warning to Ukraine’s Western allies against deepening their involvement in the war. France and the United Kingdom have indicated their willingness to provide further support to Ukraine, including the potential deployment of troops and the supply of long-range weapons capable of striking Russian territory.
Analysts suggest that Russia’s nuclear threats are aimed at deterring NATO intervention and support for Ukraine while also shaping the battlefield and controlling escalation to protect Russian interests. However, experts warn that the use of tactical nuclear weapons could lead to unprecedented consequences and potentially escalate into a wider nuclear conflict.
As the war in Ukraine continues, the international community remains concerned about the growing nuclear risk and the potential for catastrophic consequences. While some believe that Putin’s nuclear threats are primarily a bluff aimed at intimidating the West, others caution against dismissing the possibility of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons if pushed to the brink.
The situation underscores the need for continued diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent the conflict from spiraling out of control. As the world watches anxiously, it remains crucial for all parties involved to exercise restraint and work towards a peaceful resolution to the crisis i

Is right-wing populism an election threat in Europe?

The European Union is gearing up for a pivotal election that could significantly shift the political landscape towards the right. From June 6th to 9th, approximately 350 million EU citizens will cast their votes to elect the 720 members of the European Parliament, the EU’s only directly elected institution. Recent polls suggest that far-right parties are poised to make substantial gains, potentially surpassing the traditional center-right group in numbers.
The outcome of these elections, held every five years, will have far-reaching implications for European policymaking in the coming years. A strong performance by the far-right could consolidate the EU’s increasingly conservative stance on migration, hinder efforts to advance climate goals, and potentially temper support for Ukraine. The extent of the far-right’s success and their ability to collaborate in shaping policy remains to be seen.
Several factors are contributing to the rise of far-right sentiment across Europe. Many voters are grappling with economic hardships, such as rising grocery and energy bills, and are skeptical about the urgency of meeting emissions reduction targets if it exacerbates their financial woes. Frustration over the EU’s handling of migration, despite various efforts to manage its borders, has also made some voters receptive to nationalist and populist appeals.
However, far-right parties in Europe are not a monolithic entity. Divisions and rivalries exist among prominent figures like Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has sought to legitimize her Brothers of Italy party, and French nationalist Marine Le Pen. Meloni has distanced herself from Le Pen to maintain her acceptance within the EU’s halls of power. Meanwhile, Le Pen and others have dissociated themselves from Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has been embroiled in scandals.
Despite these divisions, far-right parties share common ground in their anti-establishment, anti-liberal, and anti-cosmopolitan elite sentiments. Their greatest potential may lie in blocking policies they collectively oppose rather than promoting or passing legislation.
Green parties, which made significant gains in the 2019 elections, are expected to face setbacks as Europeans grapple with the costs of transitioning to a greener economy. Center-right parties have also begun to echo the hard-right’s rhetoric, pushing for extensions, flexibility, and loopholes in EU climate policies.

As the EU stands at a crossroads, the outcome of these elections will have significant implications not only for Europe but for the global community as a whole. The rise of far-right parties, the potential for a more conservative stance on key issues, and the challenges faced by green parties all contribute to a complex and evolving political landscape that will shape the future of the European Union.

 

  1. Europeans may be about to elect their most right-wing parliament in history
  2. The far-right is set to make huge gains in EU elections. It could define the next five years of European politics
  3. ‘There will be a shift to the right’ in this week’s European Union elections, ‘so the question is, how big?’
  4. As Europe votes, a populist wave surges

June 5– Latin America

Russia deploying air and sea assets for military exercises in Caribbean, U.S. official says

 

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