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Mia Mccarthy & Jordan Carney, 8-31, 26, Politico, The House is back in session. Many Republicans hope it won’t be for long., https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/31/house-republicans-return-election-01055217

The House is back in session Monday for the first time in five weeks. It’s not clear how long members will stick around.

Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping to tick the lone essential item off the chamber’s to-do list in lawmakers’ first days back: sending a shutdown-averting spending bill to President Donald Trump’s desk. Otherwise, the Capitol Hill agenda is devoid of must-pass legislation until later in the year.

Meanwhile, the thin GOP majority has had trouble opening the House floor for debate on any number of legislative priorities, and many Republicans lawmakers are simply eager to get back home ahead of the November midterms rather than endure more headaches in Washington.

Together that has fueled open speculation among members and aides that House leaders will call it quits until mid-November much sooner than the currently scheduled Oct. 1 exit date.

“So many people are having to run back and forth to campaign,” Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) told reporters Thursday. “I think we can get some other things done [beyond the spending stopgap], but the big bills will probably have to wait until after the election.”

Another House Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, was more blunt: “I think we have very little to do.” A third member, running for reelection in a competitive district, said in a text message, “I’d be happy to be sent home early!”

The agitation for an early exit is likely to grow louder if Johnson can win approval as planned this week for the Senate-passed government funding bill, which would postpone a possible shutdown from midnight Sept. 30 to Dec. 11. The funding patch also would extend the deadline to reauthorize lapsing surface transportation authorities.

GOP leaders plan to put the bill on the floor Tuesday under a fast-track method requiring a two-thirds majority vote, and there are reasons to believe it will pass without much drama. Trump and key congressional Democrats have endorsed the 10-week punt.

That bipartisan support is expected to overcome Republicans concerns over a Senate-inserted provision backed by the White House to delay the start of an intoxicating hemp product ban, as well as a provision favored by Democrats to temporarily hold up a Trump administration proposal to put political appointees in charge of federal grant approvals.

“I would say that we’re going to avoid any kind of shutdown, and we’ll be in good shape going into the elections,” Rep. Riley Moore of West Virginia, a GOP appropriator, told reporters earlier this month.

Lawmakers have already punted other major deadlines, leaving members eyeing the post-election “lame duck” session for substantive legislating. But there are also lingering questions about whether House Republican leaders can move forward with a partisan agenda in any case.

Rebel factions upset over matters ranging from ethanol fuel regulations to immigration policy votes have frustrated Johnson’s attempts all summer to pass procedural measures necessary to bring GOP bills to the floor. Many Republicans believe those dynamics will continue into September, leaving the fast-tracked bills passed under “suspension of the rules” as leaders’ only legislative option.

“I don’t think many things are going to pass except for suspension bills,” said another House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the GOP’s expectations for the pre-election session.

While leaders and their top aides acknowledge no current plans to send members home early, a frozen floor could quickly lead them to determine otherwise. At the same time, some Republicans are wary of beating an early retreat after many of them hammered the Senate for leaving town earlier this month without taking up key House-passed bills.

“We need to campaign, but it’s not a great look for us to not come into town and work,” a fifth House Republican granted anonymity said. The member, representing a safe red district, acknowledged that others in more competitive districts likely feel differently.

“People already think we are on vacation when we’re home,” the lawmaker added. “What kind of damage does it do if we leave D.C. again?”

Both chambers will be out of session next week following the Labor Day holiday, and many Republican lawmakers are expected to travel to Dallas at the end of that week for the GOP’s midterm convention. Republicans are looking to amp up one of their top campaign messages beforehand — that Democrats are left-wing extremists — by forcing a vote this week on a resolution condemning socialism “in all its forms.

The House could also vote this week to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) for inappropriate conduct toward two female staffers following an Ethics Committee recommendation. Edwards, who dropped his bid for reelection two days after the panel issued a lengthy report, attempted to clear his name to his colleagues last week ahead of the expected vote.

House GOP leaders could also put a Senate-passed Russian sanctions bill on the floor before the end of the month, though it is unclear whether it can pass. Many House Democrats — including Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the party’s leader on the Foreign Affairs Committee — believe the bill would give too much authority to Trump.

But with many other House priorities currently in Senate limbo, there could be little incentive for members to hang around to wait to see if the Senate will act once it returns Sept. 14 for a brief three-week session.

House Republicans rushed before their summer recess to adopt a budget blueprint for a fresh party-line spending package, but it’s currently stuck across the Capitol amid competing demands from defense hawks, fiscal conservatives and some GOP senators who aren’t convinced another such bill is needed at all.

Senate Republicans don’t expect the budget measure to be brought to the floor before the election, according to five people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.

House Republicans appear to be acknowledging that reality. When asked if he was confident the Senate would take up a third reconciliation bill, Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) told reporters this month that “‘confident’ is probably the wrong word.”

Instead, the Senate is expected to focus in September on confirming Trump’s nominees and holding a vote on cryptocurrency legislation, as well as trying to advance a bill to overhaul college athletics and the Senate version of the farm bill.

No crypto bill

Mia Mccarthy & Jordan Carney, 8-31, 26, Politico, The House is back in session. Many Republicans hope it won’t be for long., https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/31/house-republicans-return-election-01055217

Some House Republicans, including Majority Whip Tom Emmer, have been trying to build public pressure on the Senate to pass the crypto bill known as the Clarity Act for months. But a mid-September vote on that measure is likely to fail. And while negotiations continue over the Senate’s college sports bill, a bill on the same topic in the House has stalled out, giving lawmakers little reason to stay to see if a Senate deal comes together.

As for the farm bill, the House passed its version earlier this year largely along party lines, while the Senate version failed to advance in committee earlier this month due to GOP absences and Democratic opposition. Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.)said he plans to try again in September.

No agriculture bill

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is eager to advance the farm bill before the election, but doing so will require Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to return from a monthslong absence — or Democrats to agree to a deal.

While Republicans are hopeful that McConnell could come back in September, any final agreement on the major agriculture package is expected to wait until after Election Day.

“I think our Democrat colleagues are probably saying we want to wait until after the election to find out what the House of Representatives is going to look like, the Senate is going to look like,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said at an agricultural conference in South Dakota earlier this month.

Trump’s agenda dead with voters now

By Megan Messerly, Myah Ward and Alex Gangitano, 08/28/2026 05:00 AM EDT, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/28/trumps-cabinet-is-hitting-the-road-to-talk-his-agenda-theyre-getting-an-earful-instead-01053543

President Donald Trump is fanning out his Cabinet across the country to sell his accomplishments and shore up key constituencies ahead of the midterms.

It isn’t quite working out that way.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited New Hampshire last week to tout natural gas pipelines and got hit with questions about $4 gasoline prices. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Iowa over the weekend ostensibly to rally farmers and instead had to defend Trump’s decision to import foreign beef, which sparked outcry among cattle ranchers.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in Florida to talk about school nutrition, faced questions about a Pennsylvania measles outbreak and ended up in a protracted fight with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro over whether the virus is responsible for two deaths.

Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a veteran of Wall Street, is struggling to win over some of his former colleagues, who are skeptical of his “economic D-Day” plan to end the Iran war and downright hostile to his attempt to lower the interest rate the federal government pays on long-term debt.

The Cabinet kerfuffle comes at a time when the president’s envoys are needed most. The midterms are less than three months away, the president’s approval rating is near record-lows and the White House is on a mission to remind voters of all it believes it has accomplished in the last two years, including a spate of tax cuts, improved border security and reductions in violent crime.

The Cabinet barnstorming is key to the administration’s midterms messaging strategy. Secretaries have used visits to promote administration policy and gin up local news coverage.

But Rollins’ recent visit to Iowa is emblematic of the broad discontent the administration is contending with, and the ways its surrogates are being knocked off message by an electorate that is deeply skeptical of some of its policies. That includes some historically loyal constituencies: Ranchers and farmers are furious over Trump’s recent decision to import 300,000 metric tons of beef and sell them at discounted prices. Rollins did not disown the decision — defending Trump’s focus on lowering prices for consumers — but didn’t exactly embrace it either, telling reporters earlier this week that she hadn’t discussed the specific policy with the president.

“If you just look at how it’s animating people here, if you just look at the breadth of the headlines coming out from it, it’s a challenge. It has legs, to be honest,” said one Republican operative in Iowa, granted anonymity to address the fallout from the beef announcement. “You don’t have to go further than to look at how [Democratic gubernatorial candidate] Rob Sand and them are using it. They clearly think it’s an issue.”\

Had Trump not made the announcement, which is intended to lower grocery prices, “it might have been just more of a routine thing like, ‘Heck yeah we want her here,’” the person added.

A Rollins spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is making it harder for communities to oppose new data centers at the very moment there is a bipartisan outcry against them. And immigration hardliners have soured on Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, as MAGA continues to rail against what they view as lagging deportation numbers. The administration this week launched a messaging blitz to tout record ICE arrests and efforts to clamp down on legal immigration — in what appears to be a bid to rebut the criticism.

“Everyone in MAGA knows Markwayne Mullin is a squish on immigration enforcement — look at the lack of [temporary protected status] removals or work site raids — they have to hide him,” said Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist. “Bobby, Bessent, Marco you can promote, DHS no way.”

A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record, said in a statement that under Mullin, “ICE is working around the clock every day to arrest and deport the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens from American communities. The results speak for themselves.”

“We are all focused on delivering on the President’s mission to deport illegal aliens and protect the homeland. Anyone who says otherwise is just trying to sow division and create an illusion of chaos,” the person said.

Still, the litany of frustrations and distractions underscore the challenge facing the Trump administration as it works to stay on message in the final sprint ahead of the midterms.

“Instead of assuring voters, they end up raising more questions and sometimes showing the liability that this entire administration has across the board. It’s hard to point to a good spokesman or even a high point in this administration right now, and certainly the polls reflect it,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist who served in Trump’s first administration. “So I’m just not sure that sending every Cabinet member and their mother out on the campaign trail is going to help. Instead of solving a problem, you end up creating divisions.”

White House aides pushed back on the idea that Cabinet secretaries haven’t been on message, arguing that they frequently discuss many topics of importance to the American people.

Trump supports imperialist intervention in Latin America

Pramila Jayapal at the PanAmerican Congress, 8-25, 26, https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/pramila-jayapal-trump-donroe-doctrine-panamerican-congress/, https://archive.is/TQ4Lz

The Trump administration’s catastrophic reframing of the Monroe Doctrine in a new and super-sized vanity ploy called the Donroe Doctrine reasserts the failed and flawed concept of US dominance in the hemisphere. It dangerously attempts to justify US intervention, economic coercion, military pressure, and unilateral operations, often in violation of our own US Constitution and international law.

Just last week, we made our opposition to this doctrine clear in a letter that I led, with 10 of my colleagues, including Representative Garcia and Senator Bernie Sanders, demanding answers from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the use and scope of these efforts—all completely unauthorized by Congress—and incredibly vast.

Dozens of lethal, extrajudicial strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean carried out by the US military over the past year. Joint operations with partner militaries that have led to the bombing and detention of civilians. The kidnapping of a sitting head of state in Venezuela. The imposing of an illegal fuel blockade on top of a longstanding, illegal embargo against Cuba, that inflicts terrible collective punishment on the Cuban people—something that I have emphasized over and over again in the two Congressional delegations I have led to Cuba. Tariffs and sanctions deployed to shield political allies of the US president from prosecution. And US interference in other sovereign nations’ elections, including endorsing favored candidates, and pardoning a convicted narcotrafficker on the eve of an election.

This is an old and dangerous playbook of intervention and regime change that carries the same severe costs. It holds contempt for democratic institutions, hostility toward migrants and the poor, a willingness to criminalize dissent, and an economic vision that serves corporations and billionaires first and working families last. And most dangerously, it is being propped up and furthered by the economic, military, and political might coming straight from the White House but not authorized by Congress or approved by the people.

That is exactly why we are here. The far right is coordinating across nations, and so must we. Not only must we share effective strategies of opposition, but also our solutions of proposition: a shared vision that lifts up and puts power back in the hands of the people. A real partnership between our nations of collaboration and cooperation to solve the global challenges of climate change, labor rights, public health, migration, and economic prosperity for all. An understanding that military might, dominance, and aggression are tools of the oppressor, but diplomacy and respectful multilateral and bilateral relationships are the only tools to bring about lasting peace.

As a long-time organizer for justice speaking with awe and respect to a room full of people who have led transitions from dictators to democracies, and brought strength and power to peoples’ movements across the hemisphere, I can say that strength emerges most in times of crisis. What terrifies our opponents most is that our ideas are truly popular and we refuse to give up.

Across the United States, majorities of Americans reject the outright cruel kidnapping and disappearing of immigrants by ICE, and instead are clamoring for humane immigration reforms. Majorities reject billionaires and corporations who want to steal our clean air, water, and energy and instead demand that we respect our core value as human beings. Majorities reject spending taxpayer dollars on bombs abroad and instead demand universal healthcare and housing. Majorities are responding to a call that our people should thrive—not just barely survive.

Dave Zirin

And in late July, one of our last actions before breaking for August recess was to pass my War Powers Resolution in the House, with every Democrat and several Republicans supporting an end to the war in Iran. We won’t stop there—we intend to pass Representative Velázquez’s Cuba War Powers Resolution when we get back, as well as other legislative actions to take on this administration’s unconstitutional actions.

Most hopeful is that we stand poised to retake control of the House of Representatives in November, and possibly even the Senate. From New York to New Jersey, Florida to Pennsylvania, Colorado to California, and Michigan to Minnesota, incredible progressive champions are winning elections despite tens of millions of dollars poured into those races for their opponents. We are so pleased to welcome some special guests of the US delegation, soon-to-be members of Congress: Chris Rabb from Pennsylvania, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez from New York, and Adam Hamawy from New Jersey.

Thank you to the organizers of the PanAmerican Congress for having the vision to see that our collective action is the only way forward. And thank you to all of you for demanding change and insisting on democratic institutions by the people and for the people, built jointly across the hemisphere, not imposed north to south.

Trump killing the GOP – Dems will retake the House and maybe the Senate

Ryan Mancini – 08/27/26 3:13 PM ET, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6051604-trump-approval-ratings-summer-midterm-elections/,

Trump’s approval ratings endure a cruel summer Trump’s approval rating is low according to some polls, Dems still facing problems winning over the middle President Trump is enduring a difficult summer in public opinion polls, with his falling approval rating deepening concerns for Republicans that they could lose the House and Senate majorities this fall. Trump has hit record lows in various polls, including a 33 percent approval rating in a Reuters/Ipsos poll this week. In the latest Economist/YouGov survey, Trump is exiting August with a 33 percent approval rating, a new low for him in that poll. Trump’s polling in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) average did see a slight increase Thursday, reaching 39.2 percent. Still, this average marked the second-lowest released by DDHQ since May, when Trump averaged 38 percent. The polling average also found that 57.5 percent disapproved of the president. DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley told The Hill that Trump’s low polling across the board is largely due to his handling of the economy, which had been among his strongest issues entering both terms, and the unpopularity of the Iran war. “That to me looms as a big problem, not because it’s foreign policy necessarily,” Skelley said. “It’s because of the domestic impact and how it connects to people’s economic frustrations, and the fact that’s playing into that is, I think, the big concern on that front.” That is a problem for GOP candidates on the ballot for the House and the Senate this year. DDHQ is projecting that Democrats will retake the House majority in November, putting the odds at 67 percent. The GOP has a 52 percent chance of retaining the Senate majority despite Trump’s poor numbers, per DDHQ. Democrats would need to gain four seats to win back the Senate, which seemed like a tall order at the beginning of the year. Now. Democrats think the majority is in reach, in large part because of the lack of wind in Trump’s sails as reflected in public opinion polls. Skelley noted the Democratic optimism in his comments, saying Democrats are “extremely animated.” He said the figures have Democrats thinking their voters will be more motivated to come out and vote this fall in midterm elections that generally have a lower turnout than presidential years. “So they’re looking very enthusiastic to turn out, and the midterms have lower turnout,” he said. Republicans, on the other hand, have reason to worry their voters will come out in droves given that Trump is less popular and is not on the ballot. Skelley said the two big problems for Trump and the GOP are” whether or not turnout is going to be decent enough among the base, or people just so dissatisfied and frustrated with the status quo that some of them don’t turn out.” He also said the GOP has to worry about losing the swing voters that can decide a close election. Trump’s numbers are lower than they were in his first term. Trump’s approval rating from Gallup, which no longer measures presidential approval ratings, at the end of his first term was 34 percent. That left him averaging a 41 percent job approval during his first term. The last time Trump’s approval rating wasn’t underwater was March 3, 2025, when DDHQ found his average approval to be at 48.1 percent compared with a disapproval of 47.7 percent. When asked by The Hill to comment on the president’s approval rating, a White House official referred to Trump’s Truth Social post on Monday, when he accused Democrats of “going CRAZY with Fake Polls.”

“They’re putting them out at levels never seen before,” Trump wrote. In that post, Trump also argued that real polls show him with stronger numbers, but he did not point to any specific polls showing him with stronger numbers. “They’re called, ‘Demoralization Operations,’ where they try to demoralize Republicans so that they don’t go out and vote — But the actual Polls are tremendous, and the Spirit in our Country has never been higher,” Trump wrote. “We’re winning against EVERYONE, including Iran, whose Country is in Economic and Military Death Spiral. Trump’s numbers heading into the 2026 midterm elections are lower than they were at the same point in his term in 2018, when they typically stood around 40 percent. They reached their highest point at the start of the pandemic, at 49 percent in April and May 2020, according to Gallup. In the 2018 midterms, the GOP ended up losing the House majority, but it gained two seats in the Senate Polling conducted by Reuters/Ipsos released in mid-August 2018 found Trump’s approval rating was at 41 percent among all Americans, with 53 percent saying they disapproved. Eight years later and Trump’s approval, based on data from the same polling partners, is 8 points below that, at 33 percent. Trump’s most recent numbers are also lower than former President Biden’s in August 2022, when Reuters/Ipsos found Biden had an approval rating of 40 percent, its highest point since it dipped to 36 percent in May 2022. The GOP won back the House majority in the 2022 midterms but did not win back the Senate majority. Its gains in the House were also not as high as many in the GOP had forecast at the time. Skelley said Democrats were helped that year by voters who “somewhat” disapproved of Biden in polls. “One of the reasons why things didn’t go as badly for Democrats, even though Joe Biden’s approval rating was bad, is that people who somewhat disapproved of Biden did not vote very strongly,” Skelley said. “In fact, they went narrowly for Democrats, according to the exit poll. It was close to 50-50, and that was a change because, historically, voters who somewhat disapproved voted for the out party by a pretty strong margin.” Trump’s second-term approval rating is low by the standards of his other predecessors since former President Reagan, according to Gallup. Most of these presidents saw declining approval ratings during the first years of their presidencies, but Reagan and former Presidents Clinton and Obama all had higher approval ratings compared with Trump’s between late July and early August of the second year of each term. Obama, for example, had a 47 percent approval rating in August 2010 and 44 percent in July 2014. Reagan’s and Clinton’s are more comparable with similar approval ratings in July 1982 and July 1994, respectively, and the same 63 percent approval rating in July 1986 for Reagan and early August 1998 for Clinton. Father-and-son former presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush both saw their approval ratings plunge later in their presidencies. But George W. Bush’s was lower than his father’s, entering the 2006 midterms with a 36 percent approval rating, compared with 65 percent ahead of the 2002 midterms. The younger Bush left office with a 34 percent approval rating, but not before it hit 25 percent, the third-lowest Gallup job approval since former President Truman’s 22 percent in February 1952 and former President Nixon’s 24 percent in July and August 1974, just ahead of his resignation. Skelley said Trump is facing an unpopular war, as were Truman, Nixon and George W. Bush toward the end of their presidencies, but the country is far more polarized than it was in the 1950s, 1970s and 2000s. He is skeptical, however, that Trump’s approval rating will sink below 30 percent. “There are just more people who may be committed to sticking with a president of either party than they would have been in the past, so that makes it harder for me to imagine. I think, really, in this day and age, what it would take is something akin to what we saw in 2008,” Skelley said, referring to the Great Recession. Skelley said Trump could turn things around and see his approval rise if the Iranian conflict sees a conclusion before the midterms and economic conditions improve as a result. But the president has a shrinking window of time to see that turnaround. “You’re running out of time for things to notably change,” he said. “And that’s, to me, the main problem, and if some underlying conditions start to change, they have to be felt. And so there’s always a delay in how things are felt in terms of economic conditions or other, you know, other things of that nature.”

Democrats can win back the Senate

Tim Balk, 8-24, 26, Can Democrats Win Back the Senate? Why Their Chances Are Improving, NPR, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/us/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-senate-majority.html?unlocked_article_code=1.71A.nArO.-YDS33Iqy5mb&smid=url-share

Republicans still have some clear advantages on the map, but President Trump’s unpopularity has opened the door for an outcome that once seemed far-fetched.

As a tumultuous primary season draws to a close, Democrats have opened up more than one path to winning control of the Senate, according to strategists in both parties and independent analysts, reshaping the battle on a map where Republicans still hold significant advantages.

Voters are uneasy about President Trump’s handling of the economy, and his unpopular war with Iran has driven increases in the costs of fuel, food and health services, putting Republicans on the defensive in states they once saw as much safer terrain.

The basic contours of the map remain challenging for Democrats. Holding 47 seats in the Senate, they must flip at least four to win a majority. At the same time, they are trying to defend seats in two states Mr. Trump won in 2024. And four of the six most competitive races are in states Mr. Trump won by double digits.

Republicans are also hoping that Democratic divisions in two important battlegrounds, Maine and Michigan, could help offset some of the political headwinds.

Mr. Trump himself has expressed concern about a pattern of Republicans not performing as well in cycles when he is not on the ballot. “Pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” he said at a rally in South Carolina on Friday, aiming to motivate his base.

But Mr. Trump’s approval rating is below 40 percent, unnerving Republicans, who worry that voters in the center will break for Democrats. And rank-and-file Democratic voters are plainly energized: They have been turning out in huge numbers for primaries.

Now the battle for the Senate, once seen as tilting heavily toward the G.O.P., is increasingly up for grabs.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Note: Data is as of Aug. 20, 2026.Source: The Cook Political Report Senate race ratings.The New York Times

Democrats Make Recent Gains

The National Picture

The latest show of Democratic strength came last week in conservative-leaning Alaska. Former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat who had recently fired a top aide and changed campaign managers, led Senator Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, by more than five percentage points in the state’s nonpartisan primary, according to incomplete results.

“I haven’t seen that kind of energy for a Democrat in Alaska in decades,” said Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, a former chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. “Democrats are energized. You see it across the country.”

By Thursday, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, moved races in Texas and Iowa from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” citing polling and the economic environment.

The shift grew the core Senate battlefield from four states — Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio — to six, widening Democrats’ margin for error.

“It’s a 50-50 tossup,” said Douglas Heye, a Republican strategist. “Republicans are nervous. They’ve watched Trump’s numbers be a constant limbo contest of ‘How low can they go?’”

While Republican groups have a vast cash advantage over Democratic ones, individual Democratic Senate candidates are handily out-raising their Republican opponents in most of the key Senate races.

Alex Latcham, executive director of the top Senate Republican super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, said his party still had “advantages in the quality of candidates, in our message and in our ability to raise and spend resources.”

As of Friday, Republican advertising spending surpassed that of Democrats in all the top six races except for the one in Texas, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Democrats, whose national party is entering the fall in debt, argue that spending will not be decisive.

“The truth is that all the money in the world should not change the fact that Trump and the Republicans in Congress have made life much more difficult,” said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, adding: “People are fed up. And they’re exhausted. And they can’t afford anything. And they’re going to change who’s in charge.”

Alaska, Iowa and Ohio

Economic Conditions Challenge Republicans

By May, when the average gas price rose as high as $4.56 a gallon, Mr. Trump had dismissed the economic costs of the war with Iran, saying they were outweighed by national security interests.

“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” he told reporters in mid-May. In a cabinet meeting later that month he declared, “I don’t care about the midterms.”

Gas prices have since dropped somewhat from their spring peaks, but they remain elevated, and the fallout from the fighting has spilled across the economy, driving inflation that has outpaced wage growth. Voters say they feel gloomy about the economy.

Some states at the center of the Senate battle have been hit hard.

In Alaska, the cost of a gallon of gas on Sunday was $4.82, roughly 70 cents above the national average, according to the AAA motor club.

Josh Turek, a Democrat, is running for Senate in Iowa, which his party increasingly sees as a pickup opportunity. Credit…KC McGinnis for The New York Times

Josh Turek, a centrist Democrat, is trying to flip a Senate seat in Iowa, which has a farming-heavy economy that has struggled under Mr. Trump’s tariff policies in his second term. Those troubles have been exacerbated by fertilizer prices that have soared since the war began.

The economic pressures have been enough to give Democrats hope in a state where Republicans feel their nominee, Representative Ashley Hinson, a skilled fund-raiser, is a particularly strong candidate.

The same economic forces are at play in Ohio, another agriculture-heavy state. There, Sherrod Brown, a former senator and a Democrat, is trying to stage a comeback and has out-raised Senator Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent, by an overwhelming margin.

Dale Butland, a Democratic strategist in Ohio, said the signs of deep voter discontent were plainly visible. “It’s bad here,” Mr. Butland said of economic conditions in Ohio. But politically, he added, “it’s all breaking now in our favor.”

In other areas of the country, Republicans see more encouraging signs.

In Maine and Michigan, Republicans say that primary season handed them relatively weak Senate opponents who they believe could lose in more Democratic-leaning terrain. In Maine, the candidate the party initially nominated, Graham Platner, was accused of rape a month after the primary.

Mr. Platner, who denied the allegation, exited the race, requiring Democrats in Maine to scramble to find a last-minute replacement. They settled on Troy Jackson, who finished third in Maine’s primary for governor in June.

Democrats have appeared to quickly coalesce behind Mr. Jackson, and some polls show him leading Senator Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent. But many in the party remain anxious about his electoral track record. And they are concerned that some Democrats captivated by Mr. Platner’s campaign may not turn out for a candidate who did not go through the normal primary process.

In Michigan, where Mr. Trump won narrowly in 2024, Democrats are rushing to heal the wounds from a bruising primary animated by personal attacks and fierce disagreements over Israel. Some Jewish Democrats in Michigan have declined to immediately back the nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, who spoke out forcefully against Israel during the primary.

The Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, who is trying to flip a Democratic-held seat, has already begun to issue appeals to disaffected Democrats. Dr. El-Sayed, a left-wing insurgent, is trying to defy a trend for

Mr. Paxton has been indicted on securities fraud charges (he reached a deal with prosecutors to avoid a criminal trial), has escaped an impeachment trial, has been accused of adultery by his estranged wife and was even caught on video years ago pilfering a prize pen.

Democrats have nominated James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who has made his Christian faith a centerpiece of his campaign. The popular podcaster Joe Rogan once told him to run for president.

The contrast between the candidates has fed Democratic hopes and Republican fears that Texas might slip out of G.O.P. hands for the first time in three decades.

Nowhere is the Senate picture brighter for Democrats than in the South, where two popular and well-known Democrats have raced out to leads in states Mr. Trump carried two years ago.

Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat and the youngest sitting senator, has a huge war chest and consistently leads his Republican rival, Representative Mike Collins, in the polls.

In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat and the youngest sitting senator, has a huge war chest and consistently leads his Republican rival, Representative Mike Collins, in the polls. His advantage, which Georgia Republicans attribute in part to his focus on constituent services, has led some Republicans to write off the race, and some Democrats to encourage him to run for president in 2028.

In neighboring North Carolina, the Democratic nominee, former Gov. Roy Cooper, is trying to flip a seat and is running as a tough-on-crime moderate. He has never lost an election. Mr. Cooper consistently leads his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley, in the polls, with some showing him ahead by double digits.

Democrats will likely win control of the House and Senate now

Maria Francis,  8-23, 26, Philly Burbs, How will Tuesday primary results impact November midterms 2026?, https://www.phillyburbs.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/23/new-polls-predictions-who-will-control-congress-2026-midterms-primary-results/91421512007/

Who is winning the 2026 midterms right now?

The short answer: nobody knows yet, but Democrats appear to have a modest edge in several recent national polls while control of both chambers remains very much up for grabs. Recent generic congressional ballot surveys have shown Democrats leading by anywhere from a few points to low double digits, depending on the poll. However, election analysts caution that national polling is only one indicator and does not necessarily predict which party will win key House and Senate races.

Republicans currently hold the Senate majority and enter the fall with structural advantages in the fight to keep control of the chamber. At the same time, Democrats are targeting several competitive races and hoping a favorable national environment translates into gains in November. Analysts continue to describe the battle for both the House and Senate as highly competitive.

What do the latest polls show?

According to the latest RealClearPolling’ generic Congressional voting polls, 48.7% said they’d vote Democrat, 42% said they’d vote Republican.

In the latest generic congressional voting poll by Economist/YouGov, 39% said if elections for Congress were being held today, they’d vote for the Democratic candidate compared to 32% that said Republican. A whopping 30% said other, not sure or that they would not vote at all.

Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket and Kalshi market predictions and odds

In Polymarket betting odds on who will win the 2026 midterms, the odds are now favoring a 48% Democratic Party sweep to win in both the Senate and the House.

Trump will steal the election

 

Michael Sozan, 8-19, 26, Center for American Progress,  Fact Sheet: The Trump Administration Is Interfering in the 2026 Midterm Elections To Entrench the Imperial Presidency,

Fact Sheet: The Trump Administration Is Interfering in the 2026 Midterm Elections To Entrench the Imperial Presidency

Having seized unprecedented control over the federal government, the Trump administration is now effectuating a multipronged plan to subvert the 2026 midterm elections, cementing its power and policy agenda without accountability.

As discussed in an August 2026 report from the Center for American Progress, history shows that authoritarian-minded leaders aim to control elections to help ensure they and their allies retain political power. The administration of President Donald Trump is carrying out such a plan, hoping to evade accountability from the American people. The administration’s plan, built on the long-discredited myth of widespread voter fraud, includes 15 interlocking tactics that would make it harder for eligible Americans to exercise their cherished right to vote, potentially stoking chaos in the process.

The administration’s tactics include:

Casting doubt on election integrity via disinformation to justify nationalizing elections

Weaponizing the federal government by installing election deniers in key government positions

Gutting key agencies and essential election security programs

Weaponizing federal databases and demanding personal voter information from states to track or purge voters

Issuing unconstitutional executive orders to limit voting access

Pressuring Congress to pass legislation that would suppress eligible voters

Curtailing voting by mail

Preventing states from using voting equipment

Diluting voters’ power through a mid-decade gerrymandering crisis

Using the departments of Justice and Homeland Security to intimidate election administrators

Seizing election-related materials and voting equipment

Deploying the military to interfere with the election

Deploying federal agents to interfere with the election

Declaring a national emergency to take over or postpone elections

GOP likely to keep the Senate

Michael Towsend, 8-18, 26, What the 2026 Midterms Could Mean for the Markets, https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-2026-midterms-could-mean-markets

In the 2026 midterm elections, control of Congress is likely to remain closely contested, with Democrats modestly favored to retake the House while Republicans hold an edge in the Senate

Low popularity means Trump won’t win

David Martin Davies, 8-13, 26, Fears grow over possible federal interference in midterm elections, https://www.tpr.org/podcast/the-source/2026-08-18/fears-grow-over-possible-federal-interference-in-midterm-elections

A recent Reuters/IPSOS poll placed Trump’s approval rating at 33%, while other polling shows widespread dissatisfaction among independent voters. Democrats currently lead Republicans by roughly seven percentage points in national generic-ballot averages.

Those numbers suggest Democrats could capture the narrowly divided House, although district-level contests will determine control. Winning the Senate remains more difficult because only a portion of its seats are contested.

$1.5 trillion defense budget won’t pass Trump won’t burn capital on it

O’Brtien & Satter, 8-10, 26, Connor O’Brien and Mark Satter, Politico, Hegseth can’t persuade Republicans to back his big budget, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/10/hegseth-cant-persuade-republicans-to-back-his-big-budget-01029388

In the year and a half since Pete Hegseth squeaked through his Senate confirmation, congressional Republicans have handed the Pentagon chief big wins — and defended some of his most controversial moves.

But now that GOP unity is splintering under the weight of President Donald Trump’s party-line push for the biggest defense budget in modern history.

Senators left town last week for their summer break no closer to enacting the crown jewel of Hegseth’s agenda, a $1.5 trillion defense budget that would stamp Trump’s mark across the military, from new battleships to a Golden Dome missile defense shield.

Hegseth hasn’t persuaded Republicans to steamroll Democrats and advance the record-breaking plan, despite regularly trekking to the Hill in recent weeks and hobnobbing with lawmakers. Instead, an increasingly vocal group of GOP lawmakers argue the administration hasn’t explained why Republicans should burn valuable political capital in pursuit of Trump’s vision — especially with the midterms just months away.

“So much of that additional defense funding is banking on not only a third, but potentially a fourth reconciliation [bill],” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). “So what if that doesn’t come? I’ve asked [Pentagon officials]: you have your F-35s, your Patriot missiles baked into that — what’s your plan B? And it’s been tough to get an answer.”

Several top Republicans are skeptical about the Trump administration’s two-track approach to clinching $1.5 trillion. This relies on the GOP using the partisan reconciliation process — which allows the majority to bypass Democrats entirely — to provide $350 billion, the bulk of the increase.

Many Republicans back more defense funding. And some defense hawks have even trumpeted the administration’s $1.5 trillion request as a long overdue investment in U.S. hard power. But the effort threatens to expose Republicans to politically risky votes ahead of hotly contested midterm elections.

Some top GOP hawks have also argued the approach gives too much spending power to the White House. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and top defense appropriator Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — who both opposed Hegseth’s nomination last year — have expressed skepticism that any additional party-line bills could advance.

“At the moment, there’s not a path forward for a supplemental, and it’s tied up with whether or not we have a reconciliation,” said Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a defense booster who sees no current way to unlock Hegseth’s landmark defense budget.

The situation is testing the limits of a Republican majority that has — mostly — had Hegseth’s back.

Hegseth’s tenure began on shaky footing. Vice President JD Vance broke a 50-50 tie to confirm him after a messy nomination that involved three fellow Republicans opposing Trump’s pick.

But since then, Republican lawmakers have batted down most efforts to rein in Hegseth, including over the five-month-long Iran war, a military campaign against suspected drug traffickers in Latin America and the deployment of National Guard troops to Democratic-led cities. He’s also escaped largely unscathed from revelations about his and other administration officials’ use of Signal to discuss sensitive military operations, mass firings of senior officers and withholding certain top promotions.

Despite those controversies, Hegseth still has the president’s favor. Trump sprung to Hegseth’s defense following reports this week that the president pressured his Pentagon chief for answers over critically low munitions stockpiles resulting from the Iran conflict.

“I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing. Everything has been extraordinary,” Trump said Thursday in a Truth Social post. “Pete is highly respected within the Military, and has made tremendous improvements, including getting rid of DEI, and increasing recruitment to historic levels.”

Republicans have handed the Pentagon some key wins. GOP leaders boosted military spending by $150 billion last year with their party-line One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Republicans also united in support of Hegseth with votes this year to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War and further gut diversity and inclusion efforts in the ranks.

But now Hegseth wants Congress to pass tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars in new spending for the military.

First, he and other administration officials want GOP lawmakers to pony up $60 billion for the Iran war using reconciliation as well. The goal is to circumvent irate Democrats who oppose the conflict. An initial plan narrowly cleared the House but has stalled in the Senate.

Then, Hegseth argues, lawmakers need to back the $1.5 trillion blueprint to ensure the military can meet worldwide challenges.

“Not funding this department at 1.5 trillion, I believe, is the greatest threat that our nation faces,” Hegseth warned senators last month in a hearing. “Either we invest in our warriors at this moment of … growing threats, or this is all just talk.”

Both the narrow war funding request and the even larger budget proposal are foundering on the Hill as Republicans grapple with what they can pass before November and aim to avoid political pitfalls that could cost them control of Congress. If successful, the two proposals would mark the third and fourth time Republicans have used the complex reconciliation process to ram through Trump’s priorities in the past two years.

Another GOP stalwart, Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, indicated that Trump and Hegseth’s proposal is far from a reality. “We’ve got more work to do to get it done,” he said.

The Pentagon under Hegseth has also stoked bipartisan anger with its relatively dismissive approach to Congress. Top Republicans and Democrats say they lack critical information onmilitary operations and spending and have been left in the dark on major decisions.

Republicans in particular have flamed the Pentagon over efforts to scale back U.S. military commitments in Europe. Defense bills produced by Senate and House Republicans place limits on reductions in U.S. troops from the continent.

Democrats, who would be sidelined in any reconciliation process, predict an uphill battle for the Trump administration after a year and a half of stonewalling its own party.

“He’ll have a hard time justifying a trillion and a half dollars to Republicans who are demanding information along with all of us,” predicted Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a frequent critic of Hegseth and Trump.

Trump and Republicans toast in the midterms

Stephen Collinson, 8-10, 26, https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/10/politics/trump-iran-economy-strait-of-hormuz-analysis

President Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and to ruin his second term-legacy.

Somehow he’s maneuvered himself into a more vulnerable spot regarding Iran than any president since Jimmy Carter. As in the 1979-80 hostage crisis, the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that it can dial up on the US leader ahead of a national election. A week ago, Trump’s team predicted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. But Tehran, now dictating terms to the US global superpower, has imposed tough new conditions.

At the same time, Trump faces a separate but related problem at home. The war’s impact on energy prices is further souring voter perceptions of the economy. He’s entered the doom loop in which presidents and officials scan data for silver linings but voters see only indifference to their plights. Twists like Friday’s bad jobs report are untimely for the GOP with November fast approaching.

As the political environment darkens for Republicans, their leader seems oblivious. Many of Trump’s weekend social media posts might have been scripted by his foes to portray an out-of-touch president. He posted a picture with South African golf legend Gary Player, and another of the sculpting of a new green at one of his courses. He posted about a futuristic drone port on the proposed White House ballroom, the Reflecting Pool renovation, and two statues in Washington newly coated with glistening golden paint. He also claimed to be a slayer of inflation, but he looked more like a president desperately trying to leave a physical legacy rather than one brimming with ideas for national renewal.

The weekend did deliver a victory for Trump: The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyer Todd Blanche as US attorney general. But this is a win that will appeal more to the president than to voters. And Republicans left town after proving their own warnings that Trump’s top-priority voting restrictions bill can’t pass. And the president’s grim August took another rough turn abroad, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected another supposed triumph — a plan to disarm Hamas in Gaza. Are Democrats handing Trump a lifeline? Such political challenges would typically spell trouble for incumbent presidents in midterm elections. And as CNN’s Aaron Blake pointed out Sunday, multiple polls now show that Trump has squandered the traditional GOP advantage in two areas: national security and the economy. Trump’s thwarting of convention has always been a political strength, and he’s less than two years past the greatest political comeback in US history. But the dynamics of November’s election may not favor him. He’s always been more effective politically as an outsider, as in 2016 and 2024. He is the political establishment now, and previously when he’s been forced to defend his own record, as in the 2018 and 2020 elections, he has foundered. The president is also in denial about how voters are feeling. “They are not angry at me, but they’re angry at Republicans,” Trump told Punchbowl News last week. But in recent weeks, Democrats may have given him an opening. Primary wins by progressive and democratic socialists are fueling Trump’s claims that he is resisting a tide of left-wing extremism. In a parallel to the GOP’s tea party insurgency earlier in the century, Democrats may risk winnable seats by nominating candidates who alienate more moderate, suburban voters who tend to decide elections. Progressives, however, believe that the jumbled political circumstances create the conditions for a breakthrough among voters who aren’t just down on Trump but who also disdain the moderate Democratic establishment — especially after the failed campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House. Progressive Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday homed in on Trump’s vulnerability on the economy as he pivoted from a bitter primary in a state that could decide who runs the Senate. “Differences that we hashed out are so much smaller than the similarities that we share: a responsibility to stand up to Donald Trump and the ways that he’s used his power for his own gain, for his family’s finances, rather than to improve your family’s finances,” El-Sayed told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

Trump will destroy the agenda pushing the SAVE Act

Jordan Carney, 8-10, 26, Politio, Senate GOP braces for a Trump August pressure cooker, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/10/senate-gop-trump-save-america-act-01030337

Senate Republicans want to spend August fighting to keep their majority and training their fire on Democrats. Donald Trump might have other plans. The GOP’s desire to move on from a monthslong intraparty squabble over Trump’s No. 1 priority comes after senators left town early Saturday without advancing any form of his election security bill. Republicans don’t have the votes to pass the SAVE America Act and punted a framework for a third party-line spending bill that includes parts of the measure rather than have a failed vote. Whether Trump accepts that explanation is entirely unclear. Some Republicans are prepared for the mercurial president’s yearslong obsession with the election measure to resurface over the five-week recess and risk further inflaming the party’s base just months before GOP senators need those same voters to turn out. “That would be consistent with his approach,” Sen. Mike Rounds said about the possibility that Trump could spend August criticizing Republicans for not passing the GOP election overhaul. But, the South Dakota Republican added “we also know the votes aren’t there.” The Senate’s moves over the weekend — which conservatives say were signed off on by Trump — likely push a third GOP spending bill until after the November election. And instead of voting again on the SAVE America Act, which some Senate Republicans oppose due to its restrictions on mail-in voting, for example, Majority Leader John Thune called up a vote on a simpler voter ID bill offered by Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio that received unified GOP support. Some, like Utah Sen. Mike Lee and other Senate conservatives, have vowed to renew their fight for the GOP bill once the chamber returns. But privately some GOP senators believe for now their actions are not enough to satisfy Trump, given his relentless focus on it that has derailed congressional business in the House and Senate at several points this year. One GOP senator, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Thune wanted to hold a vote on the voter ID bill because “he thinks it will give us cover with the president.” “I think he’s wrong,” the senator said, adding that Senate Republicans were “not factoring in the president’s reaction.” Asked if he thought the Senate’s actions on the narrower voting bill would satisfy Trump, Thune said in an interview, “good question, but I think if they want votes, we’ll try and get votes,” adding, “I can’t guarantee outcomes.” Trump and his allies’ continued focus on a bill that doesn’t have the votes to pass has frustrated Senate Republicans. Some Republicans also see Trump’s focus on the election bill as a back-door way for the president to accomplish what they think he really wants: getting rid of the filibuster, which a critical mass of Republicans also opposes. “At the end of the day, all Republicans need to start getting satisfied with everybody pretty quickly, so that we can get the voters to be satisfied with us, and we maintain our majority at least in the Senate,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said when asked about Trump. He added that “I hear what the administration is saying. I look at political data almost every day of the week. …I don’t see [the SAVE America Act] as one of the major factors that are going to get out to the polls.” Senate Republicans suggested to Vice President JD Vance during a closed-door lunch last week that he could speak to the president on their behalf about the realities they were facing on the budget resolution and other parts of their pre-August to-do list, according to two attendees. Vance, however, said Senate Republicans should speak directly with the president themselves. A day later, Senate conservatives spoke with Trump who, according to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), blessed punting a vote on a budget resolution into the fall rather than forcing one before leaving that would have failed. Watch: The Conversation Dasha Burns presses Mike Johnson on the economy, Iran and Trump’s agenda Play Video37:20 Dasha Burns presses Mike Johnson on the economy, Iran and Trump’s agenda Such a vote would’ve also put a target on the backs of the GOP senators who opposed it and, potentially, only further frustrated Trump, who has lashed out repeatedly in recent weeks at the Senate GOP’s inability to pass the elections measure. “We’re in total agreement. There was no argument about it. …He would like a better reconciliation bill. That will take more time, so he was completely supportive,” Johnson said about the conversation with the president. Thune, asked about the conservatives’ conversation with Trump, added that “I think everybody for the most part is on the same page.” But Johnson’s conversation with Trump, Lee and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, comes after the Wisconsin senator acknowledged to reporters late last month that Trump “probably wouldn’t like that too much” if Republicans left town without advancing a budget resolution. “Nor would I,” Johnson added. “Nor would a lot of people who support us.”

 

 

 

Trump has collapsed politically

 

Aaron Blake, 8-9, 26, CNN, Trump has squandered Republicans’ typical advantages in 2 key areas, https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/09/politics/trump-poll-economy-national-security

President Donald Trump’s political stature is so poor right now that he has squandered the Republican Party’s advantage on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll this week showed Democrats and Republicans virtually tied on “war, foreign conflicts and terrorism.” The GOP led on that issue by 11 points after the 2024 election. Today, 37% of US adults say Democrats have a better approach, compared to 36% who say the GOP does.

Fox News polling a couple weeks back showed something very similar: On national security, 50% of registered voters preferred the GOP, to 48% who preferred the Democratic Party. That’s compared to a 12-point edge for Republicans in January, before the Iran war.

Both recent findings are within the margin of error. But the numbers even being that close is basically unheard of.

Fox polling has regularly tested how registered voters compare the two parties on terrorism and national security. Until the Iran war, Democrats had never even been within double-digits of the Republican Party on either issue.

Republicans have also led consistently on national security in Gallup polling. Democrats only nosed ahead on that issue once in the 21st century: in 2007.

Gallup’s data on which party is better on “international terrorism and military threats” has been even more lopsided in the GOP’s favor.

Across 22 polls conducted since a year after 9/11, Democrats have led on that issue only once — again, in 2007 — and most of the time Republicans led by double-digits.

And then there’s the economy.

The most recent Fox survey showed Democrats leading on that issue by nine points, 54%-45%. That was the biggest Democratic advantage since 2006, when they led by 20 points.

Democratic Party supporters cheer during the Michigan Democratic Party General Election Kickoff Rally at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, on August 7.

Democratic Party supporters cheer during the Michigan Democratic Party General Election Kickoff Rally at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, on August 7. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

And when they took a lead on the economy back in April, it marked the first time they were ahead since 2010, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that began during the George W. Bush administration.

CNN polling back in May showed a closer split between the two parties on the economy, with 35% of adults preferring Democrats, compared to 33% who preferred the GOP.

The poll previously asked people to choose between congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats. The last time Republicans didn’t lead on that question was 2009.

The numbers on both fronts seem to illustrate that Trump greatly miscalculated the fallout from launching the Iran war — as well as other controversial policies like his global tariffs.

By launching the tariffs, he effectively took ownership of whatever became of the economic picture. Then he compounded negative public sentiment by basically shrugging off any responsibility to address Americans’ inflation concerns. Now he’s contending with a still-stagnant economic picture, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July.

Americans don’t love Democrats; in fact, the blue side remains pretty unpopular in polls. So the fact that they’ve apparently taken a lead on the economy really says something.

And the national security numbers might be even more striking — because Democrats hardly ever even compete with Republicans on the topic.

Just as education and health care almost always favor Democrats, national security and defending the homeland are almost always signature GOP issues, and lopsidedly so.

That remained true even when Bush launched wars in the Middle East that gradually became pretty unpopular.

Trump, though, seems to have botched the Iran war so badly that Americans suddenly see Democrats on equal footing with the GOP — in terms of issues on the GOP’s own turf.

Trump will destroy the agenda pushing the SAVE Act

 

Jordan Carney, 8-10, 26, Politio, Senate GOP braces for a Trump August pressure cooker, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/10/senate-gop-trump-save-america-act-01030337

 

 

CLARITY Act (CRYPTO) is dead

 

Aaron Blake, 8-9, 26, Trump has squandered Republicans’ typical advantages in 2 key areas, https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/09/politics/trump-poll-economy-national-security

The crypto industry suffered a significant blow after the Senate delayed a vote on the Clarity Act until after its August recess. The industry’s No. 1 priority is essentially out of time.

Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) confirmed the delay late Thursday. Both sides of the aisle are still at odds over the bill, which includes putting most crypto trading outside the control of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Freedom from being scrutinized by Wall Street’s sheriff has been a goal for Coinbase Global

 and other crypto firms, which faced a crackdown under President Joe Biden’s SEC.

In an X post, Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad thanked Thune for his “commitment” to revisit the bill and said “there is every reason to be confident that we can get it done.”

The Clarity Act’s hopes had faded over the past week, and part of the stock move might be a “buy-the-news” reaction. Investors also might be hopeful that the bill still has a chance after Thune said the Senate would vote on the bill in September.

Still, the legislative calendar is tight enough that it would be tough at this point for the bill to make it across the finish line this year.

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“Nothing is dead until the year is up, technically speaking, but it’s hard to see the issues that have come up being solved in the time they have left,” said Chris Niebuhr, an analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors.

To clear a filibuster, the bill needs at least 60 votes. That means at least some Democrats will need to be on board.

Negotiations for the past couple of weeks have been hung up on a demand by Democrats that the bill include restrictions on President Donald Trump’s crypto dealings.

Some GOP lawmakers have also said the bill needs stronger restrictions on the ability of crypto companies to pay yield. Their demand is an ask of community banks who say customers could pull their deposits in favor of crypto accounts.

In the most optimistic case, senators reach a deal on those issues over the recess and can vote during the Senate’s three-week work period that begins in mid-September.

A morning briefing on what you need to know in the day ahead, including exclusive commentary from Barron’s and MarketWatch writers.

The White House and lawmakers have failed to reach an agreement on the ethics issue for weeks. The September vote might simply be a way for the Republicans to put the Democrats on the record as killing the Clarity Act, Niebuhr said.

Crypto companies helm one of the largest political action committees this campaign cycle, and GOP lawmakers are eager for the industry to use that money against their opponents.

For Coinbase, the delay isn’t all that bad. The ethics and community banking issues holding up the Clarity Act are arguably tangential to their core goal of seeing most crypto trading put outside the scope of securities laws.

Trump’s SEC has been working on industry-friendly regulations for months; if the bill isn’t passed, the commission will probably move forward quickly to put those in place.

Barring a miracle, though, the industry is going to have to wait quite a bit longer to enact its biggest legislative priority.

Budget reconciliation bill is dead and way behind other thumpers

 

A sweeping party-line spending bill demanded by President Donald Trump is at risk of being put on hold until after November’s election, after Senate Republicans failed to muster support before departing for August recess.

While Congress will be back in September, there are private doubts among GOP lawmakers that the Senate will move a plan before Nov. 3, given a pileup of other legislation and a desire to protect vulnerable Senate Republicans from taking tough votes just weeks before the election.

The process for adopting the Senate budget framework, designed to boost defense spending, farm assistance and election grant funding, would potentially expose GOP senators to votes prompted by Democrats on food assistance for low-income families, Trump’s long-sought White House ballroom and the $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” secured in a settlement between Trump and the IRS.

The effort relies on the budget reconciliation process to sidestep a filibuster by Democrats. Adopting the budget blueprint is just the first step, and then Republicans would need to draft and agree on the details of the spending itself – a process that could take weeks or months.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Saturday that he expected that Republicans would need to eventually pass a reconciliation bill to provide a boost in defense spending but he didn’t commit to action in September. That’s when Congress faces an intense pre-election sprint to avoid a government shutdown, pass Russia sanctions, revive a stalled cryptocurrency bill and other agenda items.

“It depends on what … the traffic will bear in September, but I think at some point we’re going to need to do another reconciliation bill,” Thune said, adding that he was “not predicting” a timeline.

One GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly said the Senate leaving town without adopting a budget framework “will be the end of the budget resolution.”

“It will be the end of reconciliation,” the senator added.

While Trump had been pressuring the Senate for a vote before recess, GOP senators said he agreed late Friday to punt until at least next month rather than have a failed vote this week.

If lawmakers fail to show progress in September, it could revive tensions between the president and Senate Republicans heading into the midterms after they flared in recent weeks over inaction on the budget plan and the SAVE America Act elections revamp – neither of which has the support to clear the chamber.

Rather than advancing SAVE America, the Senate on Saturday took a failed vote on voter ID legislation, which unlike the more sweeping elections bill doesn’t divide the GOP conference. The chamber also punted a college sports bill that Trump had demanded senators pass just hours before, with the bill’s supporters indicating that the legislation would be a top priority in September.

But it’s the budget resolution that Republicans worried would put their own members in a jam. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) went so far as to indicate that he would oppose it to help protect vulnerable colleagues from having a target put on their back.

“I’m going to support my members who are up for election,” Tillis said. “They’re the most important priority right now.”

Underscoring the work ahead, Senate Republicans are expected to revise the initial budget proposal they rolled out Friday, after pushback from GOP lawmakers concerned it was too broad and wouldn’t adequately fund the military.

Even major advocates of the spending plan – the third Republicans have attempted since the outset of Trump’s second term – are casting doubt on quick action once the Senate returns.

“If you’re going to expect it to be done in September, I think it would be pretty difficult to do it without passing a resolution [in August],” Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in an interview Friday.

Asked Friday night, after speaking with Trump, if the delay meant Republicans would have to tackle the bill in the post-election lame duck session, Johnson said Republicans “will start working on it diligently.”

“That’s all we can say,” he added.