Politics Daily

$1.5 trillion defense budget won’t pass Trump won’t burn capital on it

O’Brtien & Satter, 8-10, 26, Connor O’Brien and Mark Satter, Politico, Hegseth can’t persuade Republicans to back his big budget, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/10/hegseth-cant-persuade-republicans-to-back-his-big-budget-01029388

In the year and a half since Pete Hegseth squeaked through his Senate confirmation, congressional Republicans have handed the Pentagon chief big wins — and defended some of his most controversial moves.

But now that GOP unity is splintering under the weight of President Donald Trump’s party-line push for the biggest defense budget in modern history.

Senators left town last week for their summer break no closer to enacting the crown jewel of Hegseth’s agenda, a $1.5 trillion defense budget that would stamp Trump’s mark across the military, from new battleships to a Golden Dome missile defense shield.

Hegseth hasn’t persuaded Republicans to steamroll Democrats and advance the record-breaking plan, despite regularly trekking to the Hill in recent weeks and hobnobbing with lawmakers. Instead, an increasingly vocal group of GOP lawmakers argue the administration hasn’t explained why Republicans should burn valuable political capital in pursuit of Trump’s vision — especially with the midterms just months away.

“So much of that additional defense funding is banking on not only a third, but potentially a fourth reconciliation [bill],” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). “So what if that doesn’t come? I’ve asked [Pentagon officials]: you have your F-35s, your Patriot missiles baked into that — what’s your plan B? And it’s been tough to get an answer.”

Several top Republicans are skeptical about the Trump administration’s two-track approach to clinching $1.5 trillion. This relies on the GOP using the partisan reconciliation process — which allows the majority to bypass Democrats entirely — to provide $350 billion, the bulk of the increase.

Many Republicans back more defense funding. And some defense hawks have even trumpeted the administration’s $1.5 trillion request as a long overdue investment in U.S. hard power. But the effort threatens to expose Republicans to politically risky votes ahead of hotly contested midterm elections.

Some top GOP hawks have also argued the approach gives too much spending power to the White House. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and top defense appropriator Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — who both opposed Hegseth’s nomination last year — have expressed skepticism that any additional party-line bills could advance.

“At the moment, there’s not a path forward for a supplemental, and it’s tied up with whether or not we have a reconciliation,” said Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a defense booster who sees no current way to unlock Hegseth’s landmark defense budget.

The situation is testing the limits of a Republican majority that has — mostly — had Hegseth’s back.

Hegseth’s tenure began on shaky footing. Vice President JD Vance broke a 50-50 tie to confirm him after a messy nomination that involved three fellow Republicans opposing Trump’s pick.

But since then, Republican lawmakers have batted down most efforts to rein in Hegseth, including over the five-month-long Iran war, a military campaign against suspected drug traffickers in Latin America and the deployment of National Guard troops to Democratic-led cities. He’s also escaped largely unscathed from revelations about his and other administration officials’ use of Signal to discuss sensitive military operations, mass firings of senior officers and withholding certain top promotions.

Despite those controversies, Hegseth still has the president’s favor. Trump sprung to Hegseth’s defense following reports this week that the president pressured his Pentagon chief for answers over critically low munitions stockpiles resulting from the Iran conflict.

“I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing. Everything has been extraordinary,” Trump said Thursday in a Truth Social post. “Pete is highly respected within the Military, and has made tremendous improvements, including getting rid of DEI, and increasing recruitment to historic levels.”

Republicans have handed the Pentagon some key wins. GOP leaders boosted military spending by $150 billion last year with their party-line One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Republicans also united in support of Hegseth with votes this year to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War and further gut diversity and inclusion efforts in the ranks.

But now Hegseth wants Congress to pass tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars in new spending for the military.

First, he and other administration officials want GOP lawmakers to pony up $60 billion for the Iran war using reconciliation as well. The goal is to circumvent irate Democrats who oppose the conflict. An initial plan narrowly cleared the House but has stalled in the Senate.

Then, Hegseth argues, lawmakers need to back the $1.5 trillion blueprint to ensure the military can meet worldwide challenges.

“Not funding this department at 1.5 trillion, I believe, is the greatest threat that our nation faces,” Hegseth warned senators last month in a hearing. “Either we invest in our warriors at this moment of … growing threats, or this is all just talk.”

Both the narrow war funding request and the even larger budget proposal are foundering on the Hill as Republicans grapple with what they can pass before November and aim to avoid political pitfalls that could cost them control of Congress. If successful, the two proposals would mark the third and fourth time Republicans have used the complex reconciliation process to ram through Trump’s priorities in the past two years.

Another GOP stalwart, Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, indicated that Trump and Hegseth’s proposal is far from a reality. “We’ve got more work to do to get it done,” he said.

The Pentagon under Hegseth has also stoked bipartisan anger with its relatively dismissive approach to Congress. Top Republicans and Democrats say they lack critical information onmilitary operations and spending and have been left in the dark on major decisions.

Republicans in particular have flamed the Pentagon over efforts to scale back U.S. military commitments in Europe. Defense bills produced by Senate and House Republicans place limits on reductions in U.S. troops from the continent.

Democrats, who would be sidelined in any reconciliation process, predict an uphill battle for the Trump administration after a year and a half of stonewalling its own party.

“He’ll have a hard time justifying a trillion and a half dollars to Republicans who are demanding information along with all of us,” predicted Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a frequent critic of Hegseth and Trump.

Trump and Republicans toast in the midterms

Stephen Collinson, 8-10, 26, https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/10/politics/trump-iran-economy-strait-of-hormuz-analysis

President Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and to ruin his second term-legacy.

Somehow he’s maneuvered himself into a more vulnerable spot regarding Iran than any president since Jimmy Carter. As in the 1979-80 hostage crisis, the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that it can dial up on the US leader ahead of a national election. A week ago, Trump’s team predicted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. But Tehran, now dictating terms to the US global superpower, has imposed tough new conditions.

At the same time, Trump faces a separate but related problem at home. The war’s impact on energy prices is further souring voter perceptions of the economy. He’s entered the doom loop in which presidents and officials scan data for silver linings but voters see only indifference to their plights. Twists like Friday’s bad jobs report are untimely for the GOP with November fast approaching.

As the political environment darkens for Republicans, their leader seems oblivious. Many of Trump’s weekend social media posts might have been scripted by his foes to portray an out-of-touch president. He posted a picture with South African golf legend Gary Player, and another of the sculpting of a new green at one of his courses. He posted about a futuristic drone port on the proposed White House ballroom, the Reflecting Pool renovation, and two statues in Washington newly coated with glistening golden paint. He also claimed to be a slayer of inflation, but he looked more like a president desperately trying to leave a physical legacy rather than one brimming with ideas for national renewal.

The weekend did deliver a victory for Trump: The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyer Todd Blanche as US attorney general. But this is a win that will appeal more to the president than to voters. And Republicans left town after proving their own warnings that Trump’s top-priority voting restrictions bill can’t pass. And the president’s grim August took another rough turn abroad, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected another supposed triumph — a plan to disarm Hamas in Gaza. Are Democrats handing Trump a lifeline? Such political challenges would typically spell trouble for incumbent presidents in midterm elections. And as CNN’s Aaron Blake pointed out Sunday, multiple polls now show that Trump has squandered the traditional GOP advantage in two areas: national security and the economy. Trump’s thwarting of convention has always been a political strength, and he’s less than two years past the greatest political comeback in US history. But the dynamics of November’s election may not favor him. He’s always been more effective politically as an outsider, as in 2016 and 2024. He is the political establishment now, and previously when he’s been forced to defend his own record, as in the 2018 and 2020 elections, he has foundered. The president is also in denial about how voters are feeling. “They are not angry at me, but they’re angry at Republicans,” Trump told Punchbowl News last week. But in recent weeks, Democrats may have given him an opening. Primary wins by progressive and democratic socialists are fueling Trump’s claims that he is resisting a tide of left-wing extremism. In a parallel to the GOP’s tea party insurgency earlier in the century, Democrats may risk winnable seats by nominating candidates who alienate more moderate, suburban voters who tend to decide elections. Progressives, however, believe that the jumbled political circumstances create the conditions for a breakthrough among voters who aren’t just down on Trump but who also disdain the moderate Democratic establishment — especially after the failed campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House. Progressive Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday homed in on Trump’s vulnerability on the economy as he pivoted from a bitter primary in a state that could decide who runs the Senate. “Differences that we hashed out are so much smaller than the similarities that we share: a responsibility to stand up to Donald Trump and the ways that he’s used his power for his own gain, for his family’s finances, rather than to improve your family’s finances,” El-Sayed told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

Trump will destroy the agenda pushing the SAVE Act

Jordan Carney, 8-10, 26, Politio, Senate GOP braces for a Trump August pressure cooker, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/10/senate-gop-trump-save-america-act-01030337

Senate Republicans want to spend August fighting to keep their majority and training their fire on Democrats. Donald Trump might have other plans. The GOP’s desire to move on from a monthslong intraparty squabble over Trump’s No. 1 priority comes after senators left town early Saturday without advancing any form of his election security bill. Republicans don’t have the votes to pass the SAVE America Act and punted a framework for a third party-line spending bill that includes parts of the measure rather than have a failed vote. Whether Trump accepts that explanation is entirely unclear. Some Republicans are prepared for the mercurial president’s yearslong obsession with the election measure to resurface over the five-week recess and risk further inflaming the party’s base just months before GOP senators need those same voters to turn out. “That would be consistent with his approach,” Sen. Mike Rounds said about the possibility that Trump could spend August criticizing Republicans for not passing the GOP election overhaul. But, the South Dakota Republican added “we also know the votes aren’t there.” The Senate’s moves over the weekend — which conservatives say were signed off on by Trump — likely push a third GOP spending bill until after the November election. And instead of voting again on the SAVE America Act, which some Senate Republicans oppose due to its restrictions on mail-in voting, for example, Majority Leader John Thune called up a vote on a simpler voter ID bill offered by Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio that received unified GOP support. Some, like Utah Sen. Mike Lee and other Senate conservatives, have vowed to renew their fight for the GOP bill once the chamber returns. But privately some GOP senators believe for now their actions are not enough to satisfy Trump, given his relentless focus on it that has derailed congressional business in the House and Senate at several points this year. One GOP senator, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Thune wanted to hold a vote on the voter ID bill because “he thinks it will give us cover with the president.” “I think he’s wrong,” the senator said, adding that Senate Republicans were “not factoring in the president’s reaction.” Asked if he thought the Senate’s actions on the narrower voting bill would satisfy Trump, Thune said in an interview, “good question, but I think if they want votes, we’ll try and get votes,” adding, “I can’t guarantee outcomes.” Trump and his allies’ continued focus on a bill that doesn’t have the votes to pass has frustrated Senate Republicans. Some Republicans also see Trump’s focus on the election bill as a back-door way for the president to accomplish what they think he really wants: getting rid of the filibuster, which a critical mass of Republicans also opposes. “At the end of the day, all Republicans need to start getting satisfied with everybody pretty quickly, so that we can get the voters to be satisfied with us, and we maintain our majority at least in the Senate,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said when asked about Trump. He added that “I hear what the administration is saying. I look at political data almost every day of the week. …I don’t see [the SAVE America Act] as one of the major factors that are going to get out to the polls.” Senate Republicans suggested to Vice President JD Vance during a closed-door lunch last week that he could speak to the president on their behalf about the realities they were facing on the budget resolution and other parts of their pre-August to-do list, according to two attendees. Vance, however, said Senate Republicans should speak directly with the president themselves. A day later, Senate conservatives spoke with Trump who, according to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), blessed punting a vote on a budget resolution into the fall rather than forcing one before leaving that would have failed. Watch: The Conversation Dasha Burns presses Mike Johnson on the economy, Iran and Trump’s agenda Play Video37:20 Dasha Burns presses Mike Johnson on the economy, Iran and Trump’s agenda Such a vote would’ve also put a target on the backs of the GOP senators who opposed it and, potentially, only further frustrated Trump, who has lashed out repeatedly in recent weeks at the Senate GOP’s inability to pass the elections measure. “We’re in total agreement. There was no argument about it. …He would like a better reconciliation bill. That will take more time, so he was completely supportive,” Johnson said about the conversation with the president. Thune, asked about the conservatives’ conversation with Trump, added that “I think everybody for the most part is on the same page.” But Johnson’s conversation with Trump, Lee and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, comes after the Wisconsin senator acknowledged to reporters late last month that Trump “probably wouldn’t like that too much” if Republicans left town without advancing a budget resolution. “Nor would I,” Johnson added. “Nor would a lot of people who support us.”

Trump has collapsed politically

Aaron Blake, 8-9, 26, CNN, Trump has squandered Republicans’ typical advantages in 2 key areas, https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/09/politics/trump-poll-economy-national-security

President Donald Trump’s political stature is so poor right now that he has squandered the Republican Party’s advantage on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll this week showed Democrats and Republicans virtually tied on “war, foreign conflicts and terrorism.” The GOP led on that issue by 11 points after the 2024 election. Today, 37% of US adults say Democrats have a better approach, compared to 36% who say the GOP does.

Fox News polling a couple weeks back showed something very similar: On national security, 50% of registered voters preferred the GOP, to 48% who preferred the Democratic Party. That’s compared to a 12-point edge for Republicans in January, before the Iran war.

Both recent findings are within the margin of error. But the numbers even being that close is basically unheard of.

Fox polling has regularly tested how registered voters compare the two parties on terrorism and national security. Until the Iran war, Democrats had never even been within double-digits of the Republican Party on either issue.

Republicans have also led consistently on national security in Gallup polling. Democrats only nosed ahead on that issue once in the 21st century: in 2007.

Gallup’s data on which party is better on “international terrorism and military threats” has been even more lopsided in the GOP’s favor.

Across 22 polls conducted since a year after 9/11, Democrats have led on that issue only once — again, in 2007 — and most of the time Republicans led by double-digits.

And then there’s the economy.

The most recent Fox survey showed Democrats leading on that issue by nine points, 54%-45%. That was the biggest Democratic advantage since 2006, when they led by 20 points.

Democratic Party supporters cheer during the Michigan Democratic Party General Election Kickoff Rally at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, on August 7.

Democratic Party supporters cheer during the Michigan Democratic Party General Election Kickoff Rally at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, on August 7. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

And when they took a lead on the economy back in April, it marked the first time they were ahead since 2010, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that began during the George W. Bush administration.

CNN polling back in May showed a closer split between the two parties on the economy, with 35% of adults preferring Democrats, compared to 33% who preferred the GOP.

The poll previously asked people to choose between congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats. The last time Republicans didn’t lead on that question was 2009.

The numbers on both fronts seem to illustrate that Trump greatly miscalculated the fallout from launching the Iran war — as well as other controversial policies like his global tariffs.

By launching the tariffs, he effectively took ownership of whatever became of the economic picture. Then he compounded negative public sentiment by basically shrugging off any responsibility to address Americans’ inflation concerns. Now he’s contending with a still-stagnant economic picture, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July.

Americans don’t love Democrats; in fact, the blue side remains pretty unpopular in polls. So the fact that they’ve apparently taken a lead on the economy really says something.

And the national security numbers might be even more striking — because Democrats hardly ever even compete with Republicans on the topic.

Just as education and health care almost always favor Democrats, national security and defending the homeland are almost always signature GOP issues, and lopsidedly so.

That remained true even when Bush launched wars in the Middle East that gradually became pretty unpopular.

Trump, though, seems to have botched the Iran war so badly that Americans suddenly see Democrats on equal footing with the GOP — in terms of issues on the GOP’s own turf.

Trump will destroy the agenda pushing the SAVE Act

Jordan Carney, 8-10, 26, Politio, Senate GOP braces for a Trump August pressure cooker, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/10/senate-gop-trump-save-america-act-01030337

CLARITY Act (CRYPTO) is dead

Aaron Blake, 8-9, 26, Trump has squandered Republicans’ typical advantages in 2 key areas, https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/09/politics/trump-poll-economy-national-security

The crypto industry suffered a significant blow after the Senate delayed a vote on the Clarity Act until after its August recess. The industry’s No. 1 priority is essentially out of time.

Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) confirmed the delay late Thursday. Both sides of the aisle are still at odds over the bill, which includes putting most crypto trading outside the control of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Freedom from being scrutinized by Wall Street’s sheriff has been a goal for Coinbase Global

 and other crypto firms, which faced a crackdown under President Joe Biden’s SEC.

In an X post, Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad thanked Thune for his “commitment” to revisit the bill and said “there is every reason to be confident that we can get it done.”

The Clarity Act’s hopes had faded over the past week, and part of the stock move might be a “buy-the-news” reaction. Investors also might be hopeful that the bill still has a chance after Thune said the Senate would vote on the bill in September.

Still, the legislative calendar is tight enough that it would be tough at this point for the bill to make it across the finish line this year.

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“Nothing is dead until the year is up, technically speaking, but it’s hard to see the issues that have come up being solved in the time they have left,” said Chris Niebuhr, an analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors.

To clear a filibuster, the bill needs at least 60 votes. That means at least some Democrats will need to be on board.

Negotiations for the past couple of weeks have been hung up on a demand by Democrats that the bill include restrictions on President Donald Trump’s crypto dealings.

Some GOP lawmakers have also said the bill needs stronger restrictions on the ability of crypto companies to pay yield. Their demand is an ask of community banks who say customers could pull their deposits in favor of crypto accounts.

In the most optimistic case, senators reach a deal on those issues over the recess and can vote during the Senate’s three-week work period that begins in mid-September.

A morning briefing on what you need to know in the day ahead, including exclusive commentary from Barron’s and MarketWatch writers.

The White House and lawmakers have failed to reach an agreement on the ethics issue for weeks. The September vote might simply be a way for the Republicans to put the Democrats on the record as killing the Clarity Act, Niebuhr said.

Crypto companies helm one of the largest political action committees this campaign cycle, and GOP lawmakers are eager for the industry to use that money against their opponents.

For Coinbase, the delay isn’t all that bad. The ethics and community banking issues holding up the Clarity Act are arguably tangential to their core goal of seeing most crypto trading put outside the scope of securities laws.

Trump’s SEC has been working on industry-friendly regulations for months; if the bill isn’t passed, the commission will probably move forward quickly to put those in place.

Barring a miracle, though, the industry is going to have to wait quite a bit longer to enact its biggest legislative priority.

Budget reconciliation bill is dead and way behind other thumpers

A sweeping party-line spending bill demanded by President Donald Trump is at risk of being put on hold until after November’s election, after Senate Republicans failed to muster support before departing for August recess.

While Congress will be back in September, there are private doubts among GOP lawmakers that the Senate will move a plan before Nov. 3, given a pileup of other legislation and a desire to protect vulnerable Senate Republicans from taking tough votes just weeks before the election.

The process for adopting the Senate budget framework, designed to boost defense spending, farm assistance and election grant funding, would potentially expose GOP senators to votes prompted by Democrats on food assistance for low-income families, Trump’s long-sought White House ballroom and the $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” secured in a settlement between Trump and the IRS.

The effort relies on the budget reconciliation process to sidestep a filibuster by Democrats. Adopting the budget blueprint is just the first step, and then Republicans would need to draft and agree on the details of the spending itself – a process that could take weeks or months.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Saturday that he expected that Republicans would need to eventually pass a reconciliation bill to provide a boost in defense spending but he didn’t commit to action in September. That’s when Congress faces an intense pre-election sprint to avoid a government shutdown, pass Russia sanctions, revive a stalled cryptocurrency bill and other agenda items.

“It depends on what … the traffic will bear in September, but I think at some point we’re going to need to do another reconciliation bill,” Thune said, adding that he was “not predicting” a timeline.

One GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly said the Senate leaving town without adopting a budget framework “will be the end of the budget resolution.”

“It will be the end of reconciliation,” the senator added.

While Trump had been pressuring the Senate for a vote before recess, GOP senators said he agreed late Friday to punt until at least next month rather than have a failed vote this week.

If lawmakers fail to show progress in September, it could revive tensions between the president and Senate Republicans heading into the midterms after they flared in recent weeks over inaction on the budget plan and the SAVE America Act elections revamp – neither of which has the support to clear the chamber.

Rather than advancing SAVE America, the Senate on Saturday took a failed vote on voter ID legislation, which unlike the more sweeping elections bill doesn’t divide the GOP conference. The chamber also punted a college sports bill that Trump had demanded senators pass just hours before, with the bill’s supporters indicating that the legislation would be a top priority in September.

But it’s the budget resolution that Republicans worried would put their own members in a jam. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) went so far as to indicate that he would oppose it to help protect vulnerable colleagues from having a target put on their back.

“I’m going to support my members who are up for election,” Tillis said. “They’re the most important priority right now.”

Underscoring the work ahead, Senate Republicans are expected to revise the initial budget proposal they rolled out Friday, after pushback from GOP lawmakers concerned it was too broad and wouldn’t adequately fund the military.

Even major advocates of the spending plan – the third Republicans have attempted since the outset of Trump’s second term – are casting doubt on quick action once the Senate returns.

“If you’re going to expect it to be done in September, I think it would be pretty difficult to do it without passing a resolution [in August],” Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in an interview Friday.

Asked Friday night, after speaking with Trump, if the delay meant Republicans would have to tackle the bill in the post-election lame duck session, Johnson said Republicans “will start working on it diligently.”

“That’s all we can say,” he added.