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US is behind Russia. Cooperation with Russia is out right now. A weak US means Russia warmongering.
Ukraine is an example. US/Russia nuclear war
China is increasingly militarization in Arctic. US must counter.
Rare Earth Minerals-Fairmont, Potomac
Arctic has REMs and militarization is needed to guarantee US access. REMs key to decarbonization
NATO and Russia have militarized in Arctic increasing chance of miscalculation. Surveillance and
communication (domain awareness) solves
Oil Spills-Fairmont, Plano West
Arctic is becoming ice free which means more shipping (of oil). That means oil spills. The Coast Guard is
chargd with handling spills but needs more resources.
Overfishing-Fairmont, Plano West
Chinese overfish and will do so in the Arctic. US has stoped China and can in the Arctic by affirming. Fod
insecurity leads to war.
Trade Routes-Delbarton, Plano West
Militarization is needed to protect trade routes
We need satellites to solve for climate change. Absent satellite intel there is a possibility of
miscalculation on Russia/China intentions
Militarization is key to relations with Greenland which is key to climate change
Emissions are under control but US militarization kills this climate progress. Arctic climate change is
Emerging Escalation-Blake, Hawken, Plano West
Russia defends its Arctic territory and will counter US militarization. This arms race goes nuclear
China is aggravated by US militarization creatring an arms race that leads to war.
Middle East peace tradeoff-politics (no evidence linking two) -Fairmont
Saudi Arabia and Israel on brink of peace deal. Biden needs Congressional support to get it done.
Biden’s Arctic militarization ruins Congressional foreign policy support, leading to no deal, leading to
Farm bill trade off politics-Fairmont
Democratic support for farm bill but Arctic militarization is politically contentious, costing farm support
which means we lose the battle to reverse climate change that’s in the farm bill
Exercises are favored in Arctic. Rusia responds creating possibility of inadvertent engagements, leading
to miscalc. There is no communication risking nuclear weapons use