The African Union should grant diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state.

Podcast Discussion of the Essay

Introduction

Somaliland, a self-declared independent state in the Horn of Africa, has been seeking international recognition since 1991, when it broke away from Somalia. Despite having a functioning government, democratic elections, and a history of peace, Somaliland remains unrecognized by any other country.  

The African Union’s (AU) recognition of Somaliland as an independent state would carry significant political, historical, and regional significance, transcending the immediate implications for Somaliland and Somalia.

Historical Context

Somaliland’s claim to independence is rooted in its distinct history and experiences as a former British protectorate. From 1884 to 1960, British Somaliland operated separately from Italian Somaliland, fostering unique political and social structures under a “light-touch” colonial administration.

Upon gaining independence on June 26, 1960, Somaliland was briefly recognized as a sovereign state before voluntarily uniting with Italian Somaliland to form the Somali Republic on July 1, 1960. However, this union quickly proved problematic. Northern Somalis (from British Somaliland) were marginalized politically and economically, and the region overwhelmingly rejected the Somali Republic’s constitution in a 1961 referendum. Discontent deepened under Siad Barre’s dictatorship (1969–1991), which targeted northern Somalia with brutal repression, including bombings and mass killings during the 1980s.

In 1991, following Barre’s ouster and Somalia’s collapse into civil war, Somaliland declared independence, dissolving its failed union with Somalia and reasserting sovereignty within its pre-1960 borders. Since then, Somaliland has established a functioning government, held peaceful democratic elections, and maintained security in stark contrast to Somalia’s instability. Its people overwhelmingly support independence, as demonstrated by a 2001 referendum in which over 97% voted in favor of a constitution affirming sovereignty. Despite lacking international recognition, Somaliland has built state institutions, fostered peace through indigenous reconciliation processes, and attracted investment in infrastructure projects like Berbera Port. Recently, Somaliland had an election the opposition party won.

Recent Developments

Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)

A major development in Somaliland’s independence quest occurred in January 2024 when it signed an MoU with Ethiopia. This agreement granted Ethiopia access to 19 kilometers of Somaliland’s coastline near Berbera in exchange for a promise of future recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty. If ratified, Ethiopia would become the first UN member state to recognize Somaliland officially. The deal also included provisions for Ethiopian naval bases and economic cooperation.

This agreement sparked significant regional tensions:

• Somalia: Mogadishu vehemently opposed the deal, recalling its ambassador to Ethiopia and accusing Addis Ababa of violating Somalia’s sovereignty.
• Egypt: Egypt supported Somalia, likely influenced by its own tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
• Djibouti: Djibouti expressed concerns about losing its status as Ethiopia’s primary maritime outlet.
• Al-Shabaab: The terrorist group rejected the agreement and threatened violence against both Somaliland and Ethiopia.

Despite these challenges, Somaliland remains committed to the MoU, viewing it as a critical step toward achieving international recognition.

Internal Political Developments

The presidential election held on November 13, 2024, marked a pivotal moment for Somaliland. The opposition Waddani Party won the election, ending 14 years of rule by the Kulmiye Party. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), the new president, has pledged to prioritize equitable governance and resume negotiations with Somalia if it aligns with Somaliland’s interests.

Waddani’s victory reflects public demand for change and inclusivity in governance. The party aims to address clan-based tensions and decentralize power away from Hargeisa. This approach could help stabilize Somaliland internally while bolstering its democratic credentials.

Regional Implications

Somaliland’s efforts toward independence have significant implications for the Horn of Africa:

• Geopolitical Tensions: The Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement has exacerbated tensions between Somalia, Ethiopia, and other regional players like Egypt. These tensions risk destabilizing an already volatile region.
• Economic Prospects: If implemented successfully, the MoU could unlock economic opportunities for Somaliland through port revenues and increased trade with Ethiopia.
• Security Concerns: Al-Shabaab has exploited regional instability to strengthen its position. The group has intensified attacks across Somalia and neighboring countries, further complicating efforts to stabilize the region.

Challenges Ahead

Despite its progress, Somaliland faces several challenges:

1. Lack of Recognition: Without international recognition, Somaliland struggles to access global financing and aid directly.
2. Internal Discontent: Some opposition groups within Somaliland have criticized the MoU with Ethiopia as compromising sovereignty.
3. Regional Instability: Ongoing conflicts in Las Anod and other disputed areas pose significant security risks.

Pro & Con Arguments

Pro Arguments

1. Stability and Governance

Somaliland has demonstrated remarkable stability compared to Somalia and other parts of the Horn of Africa. It has established a functioning government, held multiple democratic elections, and maintained relative peace for over three decades. Recognition by the AU would reward Somaliland’s commitment to democracy and stability, potentially encouraging similar governance models in other parts of Africa. This could also provide a counter-narrative to the chaos in Somalia, showcasing that effective self-rule is possible in the region.

2. Historical Justification

Somaliland was briefly an independent state in 1960 before voluntarily joining Somalia in a union that later collapsed. Its claim to independence aligns with the AU’s principle of respecting colonial-era boundaries, as Somaliland was a distinct British protectorate before uniting with Italian Somaliland. Recognizing Somaliland would honor its historical autonomy and fulfill its people’s longstanding aspiration for self-determination.

3. Economic Potential

Recognition would enable Somaliland to access international financial institutions, loans, and foreign investment, which are currently limited due to its unrecognized status. Its strategic location along the Red Sea positions it as a potential regional trade hub, especially with its modernized Berbera Port. This could contribute to economic growth not only in Somaliland but also across East Africa through enhanced trade networks.

4. Counterterrorism and Regional Security

Somaliland has largely avoided the terrorism and piracy that plague Somalia, making it a valuable partner in regional security efforts. Recognizing Somaliland could strengthen its capacity to combat extremism and piracy in the Red Sea region while providing a stable ally for counterterrorism initiative.

5. Precedent for Responsible Secession

Unlike many secessionist movements, Somaliland has pursued independence through peaceful means and established functional state institutions. Recognizing it could set a precedent for responsible self-determination, distinguishing it from other movements driven by violence or ethnic divisions.

Con Arguments Against African Union Recognition

1. Threat to Territorial Integrity

Recognizing Somaliland could set a precedent for other secessionist movements across Africa, such as those in Nigeria (Biafra), Cameroon (Ambazonia), or Morocco (Western Sahara). This could destabilize the continent by encouraging ethnic or regional groups to pursue independence, undermining the AU’s principle of maintaining post-colonial borders.

2. Regional Instability

Recognition could exacerbate tensions between Somaliland and Somalia, potentially leading to conflict over disputed territories like Sool and Sanaag regions. It could also strain relationships between neighboring countries, particularly Ethiopia and Djibouti, which have competing interests in the region 

3. Lack of International Consensus

No country currently recognizes Somaliland, and the AU’s recognition without broader international support could isolate it diplomatically. The AU has historically deferred to global powers like the United Nations on such matters; acting unilaterally might undermine its credibility or create diplomatic rifts.

4. Economic Risks

While recognition might attract investment, it could also make Somaliland overly dependent on specific foreign powers like Ethiopia or Taiwan for economic support. This dependency might limit its autonomy or provoke rivalries among regional powers such as Ethiopia, Egypt, and China over influence in Somaliland 

5. Internal Challenges

Despite its stability, Somaliland faces internal issues such as clan-based tensions, limited press freedom, and economic hardships like high unemployment rates. Recognition might not immediately resolve these problems but could instead expose them further under international scrutiny.

The Significance of AU Recognition

Beyond the pros and cons of recognition, we have to look at the specifics of

1. Affirmation of Historical and Legal Precedents

Recognition of Somaliland would align with the AU’s principle of respecting colonial-era boundaries, a cornerstone of African diplomacy since the formation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1963. Somaliland’s claim to independence is rooted in its history as a separate British protectorate, distinct from Italian Somaliland, which later became Somalia. Somaliland was briefly independent in 1960 before voluntarily uniting with Somalia in a union that quickly proved dysfunctional. Its reassertion of independence in 1991 restored its colonial borders, adhering to the legal doctrine of uti possidetis juris, which seeks to maintain pre-existing boundaries to avoid territorial disputes.

The AU has previously supported border changes under exceptional circumstances, such as Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia (1993) and South Sudan’s secession from Sudan (2011). Compared to these cases, Somaliland’s legal and historical claim is arguably stronger because it had a brief period of recognized independence and voluntarily entered—and later exited—a union with Somalia. Recognizing Somaliland would demonstrate the AU’s consistency in applying its principles and reinforce its credibility as a body capable of addressing unique cases without undermining broader continental stability (1, 2, 6).

2. Acknowledgment of Governance and Stability

Somaliland’s long-standing stability contrasts sharply with the instability in Somalia. Over three decades, Somaliland has built a functioning democracy, held multiple peaceful elections, and maintained internal security through hybrid governance systems that blend traditional Somali structures with modern state institutions. This stands in stark contrast to Somalia, which continues to grapple with terrorism, corruption, and clan-based conflicts.

Recognition by the AU would validate Somaliland’s achievements in governance and provide a model for other African regions struggling with state-building. It would also send a message that stability and democratic progress can be rewarded on the continent, thereby incentivizing similar efforts elsewhere (2, 7).

3. Strengthening Regional Security

The Horn of Africa is one of the most volatile regions globally, plagued by terrorism (e.g., Al-Shabaab), piracy, and interstate tensions. Somaliland has managed to shield itself from much of this instability through effective governance and security measures. Recognition by the AU could further bolster Somaliland’s capacity to contribute to regional security by formalizing its role as a partner in counterterrorism efforts and anti-piracy operations along the Gulf of Aden.

Additionally, recognition could help stabilize the broader region by providing a legitimate outlet for Somaliland’s grievances, reducing tensions with Somalia over contested territories like Sool and Sanaag. It could also mitigate external meddling by actors like Ethiopia or Egypt, who have used Somaliland’s unrecognized status as leverage in their geopolitical rivalries (3, 4).

4. Economic Opportunities for Africa

Somaliland’s strategic location along the Red Sea positions it as a potential economic hub for East Africa. Its Berbera Port has already attracted significant foreign investment from countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia. Recognition would unlock access to international financial institutions and aid programs, enabling Somaliland to further develop its infrastructure and economy.

This economic growth could have spillover effects for neighboring countries by enhancing regional trade networks and providing landlocked countries like Ethiopia with reliable access to maritime routes. AU recognition could thus contribute to broader economic integration in East Africa (5, 7).

5. Upholding Self-Determination

Recognition by the AU would affirm the principle of self-determination enshrined in international law. The people of Somaliland have consistently expressed their desire for independence through referenda and elections. Their case is not one of ethnic or religious separatism but rather a response to decades of marginalization, violence, and dysfunction within the Somali Republic.

By recognizing Somaliland, the AU would demonstrate its commitment to addressing legitimate grievances through peaceful means while distinguishing between responsible self-determination movements like Somaliland’s and destabilizing secessionist efforts elsewhere (6, 8).

6. Enhancing the AU’s Role as a Mediator

The AU’s recognition of Somaliland could position it as a more proactive mediator in resolving African conflicts. By taking a leadership role on this issue, the AU could strengthen its credibility as an institution capable of addressing complex political challenges within its member states.

Recognition would also allow the AU to guide negotiations between Somaliland and Somalia over unresolved issues such as borders, resource sharing, and citizenship rights. This could pave the way for a peaceful resolution that benefits both parties while setting a precedent for constructive conflict resolution on the continent (1, 7).

Trump and Somiland

Donald Trump’s recent thinking regarding U.S. recognition of Somaliland reflects his characteristic interest in pragmatic, transactional diplomacy and his willingness to challenge established norms in foreign policy. Reports suggest that Trump, upon returning to the presidency, is seriously considering recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. This potential shift is influenced by Somaliland’s strategic importance, particularly its location along the Red Sea and control of the Berbera Port, which is vital for maritime security and regional trade. Somaliland’s stability and democratic governance also make it an appealing partner in a region plagued by extremism, piracy, and instability. Trump’s team has reportedly been lobbied by advocates like former UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, who framed Somaliland’s recognition as aligned with U.S. interests in counterterrorism and countering Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa. Trump’s dissatisfaction with Biden’s reversal of his Somalia troop withdrawal order may also motivate him to take a bold step in recognizing Somaliland as a way to assert his policy priorities.

The significance of this potential move lies in its far-reaching implications for U.S. foreign policy and regional geopolitics. Recognition of Somaliland would mark a departure from decades of U.S. support for Somalia’s territorial integrity under the African Union’s “One Somalia” policy. It would reinforce Trump’s reputation as a disruptor willing to challenge multilateral norms and prioritize results-driven partnerships. For Somaliland, formal recognition would open access to international aid, trade opportunities, and security collaborations, accelerating its development and solidifying its role as a key player in the Horn of Africa. However, such a decision could escalate tensions with Somalia, strain relations with other African nations wary of secessionist precedents, and provoke geopolitical rivalries involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and China. While the move could enhance U.S. influence in the region by securing a stable ally, it also risks destabilizing an already volatile area if not managed carefully.

US Recognition and Counterterrorism

U.S. recognition of Somaliland could significantly enhance American military basing opportunities, particularly in the strategically vital Red Sea region, and bolster efforts to counter the Houthi threat in Yemen. Somaliland’s Berbera Port and airfield, located along the Gulf of Aden, offer a prime location for U.S. military operations. These facilities would provide the U.S. with a new base of operations to protect maritime routes, conduct counterterrorism missions, and project power in the region. Unlike Djibouti, where the U.S. already maintains its only permanent military base in Africa but faces growing Chinese influence, Somaliland represents an untapped and geopolitically advantageous partner willing to align with U.S. interests. Recognition would remove the current diplomatic barriers preventing full security cooperation and allow Washington to establish a direct military presence without needing Somalia’s approval.

The strategic significance of such a move extends to U.S. operations against the Houthis in Yemen, who have increasingly targeted international shipping and posed missile threats in the Red Sea. A base in Somaliland would shorten logistical distances to Houthi-controlled areas like Hodeidah port and provide a secure staging ground for drone strikes, surveillance, and rapid response missions. This would complement existing U.S. operations in Djibouti while diversifying its regional footprint to reduce overreliance on a single hub. Furthermore, Somaliland’s stability and willingness to engage with international partners make it an ideal location for countering regional threats, including piracy and terrorism, while advancing broader U.S. strategic objectives in the Horn of Africa and Middle East.