The United States ought to adopt carbon pricing.

Carbon pricing is an economic approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by assigning a monetary value to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. The primary goal is to discourage pollution and incentivize the transition to cleaner, low-carbon alternatives.

There are two main types of carbon pricing mechanisms —

Carbon taxes: A direct fee imposed on the carbon content of fossil fuels or on CO2 emissions. The concept of a carbon tax in the United States dates back to the 1970s. In 1979, Representative John Anderson proposed a 50-cent-per-gallon “energy conservation tax” on motor vehicle fuels, with revenues used to reduce payroll taxes and increase Social Security benefits. While this specific proposal didn’t gain traction, it laid the groundwork for future carbon tax discussions. In 1993, the Clinton administration attempted to introduce a broader energy tax based on British thermal units (Btu). This proposal faced significant opposition from various industries and was ultimately scaled back to a modest increase in transportation fuel taxes. The failure of this initiative has often been cited as a reason for political reluctance to pursue carbon taxes at the federal level. This method provides certainty about the price of emissions but not about the quantity of emissions reduced.

Cap-and-trade systems: Also known as emissions trading systems (ETS), these set a limit on total emissions and allow companies to buy and sell emission allowances. This approach provides certainty about the quantity of emissions reduced but not about the price.

There are also carbon credit mechanisms, though one may not treat them distinctly from ETS because they require an ETS to work.

Carbon crediting mechanisms, also known as carbon offset programs or baseline-and-credit systems, allow entities to earn credits for reducing, avoiding, or removing greenhouse gas emissions. These credits can then be sold to other entities looking to offset their own emissions or meet regulatory requirements: Key features of carbon crediting mechanisms include:

  1. Baseline establishment: A baseline level of emissions is determined for a specific project or activity.
  2. Emission reduction activities: Projects or activities that reduce emissions below the baseline are implemented.
  3. Credit generation: Credits are issued for the difference between the baseline emissions and the actual reduced emissions.
  4. Verification and certification: Independent third parties verify the emission reductions to ensure their credibility.
  5. Trading: Credits can be bought and sold in carbon markets, allowing entities to offset their emissions or meet regulatory obligations.

Source: World Bank

There are also indirect pricing mechanisms.

Source: World Bank

Reducing various forms of fossil fuel subsidies could stimulate the development of renewable energy and so could general fuel taxes.  These mechanisms are arguably topical, but negative debaters may argue they are only indirect and try to exclude them.

Affirmative — Financial incentives for new energy sources

Carbon pricing can spur the development and adoption of alternative energy technologies in several ways:

Incentivizing energy efficiency: Increasing the cost of fossil fuels through a creating a tax, capping carbon production, or providing incentives to develop carbon offsets encourages businesses and consumers to reduce energy consumption and invest in more efficient technologies. Research shows that carbon taxes drive innovation in energy efficiency improvements, as higher energy costs motivate finding ways to use energy more efficiently.

Boosting renewables: A carbon tax makes renewable energy sources like solar and wind more cost-competitive compared to fossil fuels. This accelerates innovation and investment in clean technologies, as the economic incentives shift in favor of low-carbon alternatives.

Supporting nuclear power: Nuclear energy, as a low-carbon source, becomes more economically attractive under a carbon tax. Studies suggest that a carbon tax in the range of $70-$316 per metric ton of CO2 could make nuclear power cost-competitive with natural gas, depending on gas prices and nuclear construction costs.

Advancing fusion and other emerging technologies: By creating a strong economic signal for decarbonization, a carbon tax encourages increased investment in breakthrough technologies like fusion. The tax provides incentives for redirecting energy investment toward low-carbon technologies, which can include long-term research into fusion and other advanced energy systems.

Driving innovation across sectors: A carbon tax affects the entire economy, spurring innovation not just in energy production but also in transportation, manufacturing, and other sectors. This comprehensive approach can lead to systemic changes in how energy is produced and consumed.

Creating revenue for clean energy research: If structured appropriately, revenue from a carbon tax can be reinvested into research and development for clean energy technologies, further accelerating innovation.

Affirmative — Alternative technologies can reduce climate change.

Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal produce little to no greenhouse gas emissions during operation, unlike fossil fuels. According to the EPA, electricity production accounts for about 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. By replacing fossil fuel-based electricity with renewables, we can dramatically reduce these emissions.

Improving energy efficiency in buildings, transportation, and industry reduces overall energy consumption. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that energy efficiency improvements could account for more than 40% of the emissions reductions needed to meet global climate goals. This reduction in energy use directly translates to fewer greenhouse gas emissions.

While controversial, nuclear power is a low-carbon energy source. The World Nuclear Association states that nuclear power plants produce no direct CO2 emissions, potentially playing a role in reducing overall emissions from the energy sector.

Advanced energy storage technologies, particularly batteries, enable greater integration of variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The IEA notes that energy storage can help decarbonize electricity systems by allowing renewable energy to be used when it’s needed, not just when it’s generated.

Smart grid technologies improve the efficiency and reliability of electricity distribution. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) reports that smart grids can facilitate the integration of renewable energy and reduce overall energy consumption, both of which contribute to lower emissions.

Transitioning to electric vehicles powered by low-carbon electricity can significantly reduce transportation emissions. The EPA states that EVs typically have a smaller carbon footprint than gasoline cars, even when accounting for electricity production.

By implementing these technologies at scale, we can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions across various sectors of the economy. This multi-faceted approach is crucial for addressing the complex challenge of climate change and moving towards a more sustainable, low-carbon future.

Affirmative — Additional Advantages

Improved Public Health: Carbon pricing leads to reduced fossil fuel consumption, particularly coal, which results in cleaner air. This has significant public health benefits, as air pollution is a major cause of premature deaths worldwide. The IMF estimates that over 3 million premature deaths occur annually due to outdoor air pollution. By decreasing the use of polluting fuels, carbon pricing can help reduce respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, improving overall public health.

Revenue Generation: Carbon pricing, whether through taxes or cap-and-trade systems with allowance auctions, creates a new revenue stream for governments. This revenue can be used to:

    • Lower other taxes, potentially reducing the overall tax burden
    • Fund investments in clean energy technologies
    • Support vulnerable communities in the transition to a low-carbon economy
    • Strengthen social safety nets

Innovation and Competitiveness: By putting a price on carbon emissions, these policies create strong incentives for businesses to invest in low-carbon technologies and processes. This can spur innovation and potentially give companies a competitive advantage in the growing global market for clean technologies. As more countries implement carbon pricing, those with established systems may gain a competitive advantage. Their industries will already be adapted to operating in a carbon-constrained environment, potentially giving them an edge in international markets.

Sustainable Development: Carbon pricing can contribute to broader sustainable development goals. By promoting cleaner energy and more efficient resource use, it can support efforts to create more sustainable cities, responsible consumption, and resilient infrastructur

Fusion Power: Carbon taxes would make fusion power more economically competitive as a zero-emission energy source. This could accelerate the development and deployment of fusion technology. Fusion offers several key advantages as an energy source – it produces no greenhouse gas emissions or long-lived radioactive waste, uses abundant fuel sources, and has the potential for virtually limitless clean energy production. Recent breakthroughs like net energy gain at the National Ignition Facility show fusion is making progress. Fusion could also support the scaling of artificial intelligence by providing abundant clean electricity to power energy-intensive AI systems and data centers. The reliable baseload power from fusion would be well-suited for AI applications that require constant high-performance computing.

Nuclear Power: Carbon pricing would improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power compared to fossil fuels. This could help prevent early retirement of existing nuclear plants and support new nuclear construction. Nuclear energy provides reliable zero-emission baseload electricity that is critical for decarbonizing the grid. It also supports U.S. leadership in nuclear technology and non-proliferation efforts. The U.S. is currently the world’s largest producer of nuclear power, with 93 operating commercial reactors. Maintaining a strong domestic nuclear industry allows the U.S. to shape global standards for safety and non-proliferation. Advanced nuclear designs like small modular reactors offer improved economics and safety features that could expand nuclear’s role in clean energy transitions globally. Overall, carbon pricing could help nuclear power continue playing a key role in both U.S. energy security and climate goals.

Negative — Disadvantages to Increasing Carbon Prices

Inflation: A carbon tax could contribute to inflation by increasing the costs of energy and goods that rely on fossil fuels for production or transportation. As businesses face higher costs due to the tax, they may pass these on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services across the economy. However, research suggests the inflationary impact of carbon taxes is typically small, estimated at around 0.15 percentage points per year.

Electricity prices: A carbon tax is likely to increase electricity prices, especially in regions heavily reliant on fossil fuels for power generation. As power plants burning coal, oil, or natural gas face higher costs due to the tax, these costs are often passed on to consumers through higher electricity rates. According to Resources for the Future, a $28 per ton carbon tax could increase average electricity prices by about 0.7 cents per kilowatt-hour by 2035.

Manufacturing sector: The manufacturing sector, particularly energy-intensive industries, may face challenges from a carbon tax. Higher energy costs can reduce profit margins and potentially impact competitiveness, especially for industries competing with foreign producers not subject to similar carbon pricing. This could lead to concerns about job losses or the relocation of manufacturing to countries with less stringent environmental regulations.

Artificial intelligence: While a carbon tax is not directly aimed at suppressing artificial intelligence, it could indirectly affect AI development and deployment by increasing the cost of energy-intensive computing. AI systems, especially large language models, require significant computational power and energy for training and operation. Higher energy costs due to a carbon tax could potentially slow AI advancement or make it more expensive, though this effect is likely to be minor compared to other factors driving AI development.

 

Inequality/poverty: There are concerns that a carbon tax could be regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income households who spend a larger portion of their income on energy and energy-intensive goods. Without proper policy design, this could exacerbate existing inequalities. However, many carbon tax proposals include mechanisms to mitigate these effects, such as dividend payments or targeted tax rebates for low-income households, which can potentially make the overall impact progressive rather than regressive.

Renewables Bad: Renewable energy sources, while generally considered environmentally friendly, can still have negative impacts on ecosystems and wildlife. Wind turbines, for instance, pose a threat to birds and bats, causing fatalities through collisions. Solar farms require large land areas, which can lead to habitat loss and displacement of local species. The construction of renewable energy infrastructure can damage natural landscapes and disrupt plant and animal communities.

Rare earth elements bad:  The mining of materials needed for renewable technologies, such as lithium for batteries, can threaten rare plant species and their habitats. This could also increase US dependence on China for these technologies.

Oil Prices. Policies that aim to reduce oil demand, such as carbon taxes and incentives for renewable energy, can lead to a decrease in oil prices. This occurs because as demand falls, the supply-demand balance shifts, putting downward pressure on prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global oil consumption averaged 99.94 million barrels per day in 2022 and is projected to reach 104.51 million barrels per day by 2025. However, if demand-reducing policies are implemented effectively, this growth trajectory could be altered, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Moderate to high oil prices are crucial for the economic stability of major oil-producing countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela. These nations heavily rely on oil revenues to fund their national budgets, social programs, and economic development initiatives.

Reverse spending. Increased government revenue could be used for something bad, such as a new weapons system.

Elections — A carbon tax could potentially hurt Harris’s election chances in several ways:

Economic concerns: Implementing a carbon tax could lead to higher energy prices, which may be unpopular with voters. Some economists argue that a carbon tax could have negative economic impacts, at least in the short term, which could be used by opponents to criticize Biden’s economic policies that will be associated with Harris.

Impact on specific industries: A carbon tax would likely have a disproportionate impact on fossil fuel-dependent industries and regions. This could alienate voters in states with significant oil, gas, or coal industries, potentially hurting Biden’s chances in key swing states.
Perception of increased taxes: Even if a carbon tax were designed to be revenue-neutral, it could be portrayed by opponents as a new tax burden on American families. This perception could be politically damaging, especially given the general unpopularity of new taxes among voters.

Complexity of the issue: Climate change and carbon pricing are complex topics that can be difficult to explain to the general public. Biden might struggle to effectively communicate the benefits of a carbon tax, while opponents could more easily frame it as harmful to the economy.

Political capital.: A carbon tax proposal would likely face strong opposition from Republicans, who could use it to mobilize their base and attack Biden’s policies. This could make it difficult for Biden to gain bipartisan support for his climate agenda.

Pushing for a carbon tax could potentially alienate members of Congress in several ways:

Republican opposition: Many Republican lawmakers are generally opposed to new taxes and skeptical of climate change policies. As the Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program notes, if Republicans maintain control of the Senate, any climate legislation would face significant hurdles, particularly given Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s historical opposition to climate-related measures.

Concerns from fossil fuel-producing states: Representatives and senators from states with significant fossil fuel industries may resist a carbon tax due to potential job losses and economic impacts in their constituencies. This could include both Republicans and Democrats from states like West Virginia, Wyoming, and Texas.

Moderate Democrats: Some moderate Democrats, especially those from energy-producing states or swing districts, might be hesitant to support a policy that could be portrayed as increasing energy costs for their constituents. Politico reports that this concern has made carbon taxes politically challenging in the past.

Progressive Democrats: While many progressives support strong climate action, some may prefer other approaches to addressing climate change. As Brookings notes, some Democrats argue that even if a carbon price is offset with other policy changes, other methods might be more effective for ensuring long-term emissions reductions.

Concerns about regressive impacts: Some lawmakers may worry about the potential regressive effects of a carbon tax on low-income households. Without proper design and redistribution mechanisms, a carbon tax could disproportionately affect those least able to afford higher energy costs.

Industry lobbying: The fossil fuel industry has significant influence in Congress. While some oil companies have expressed openness to carbon pricing, others may lobby against it, potentially swaying lawmakers who receive support from these industries.

Alternative policy preferences: Some members of Congress may prefer other climate policies, such as regulations or clean energy investments, over carbon pricing. As evidenced by Rep. Zinke’s resolution condemning a potential carbon tax, there’s active opposition to this approach among some lawmakers.

Negative — Counterplans

Some climate advocates prefer other approaches, such as regulations or clean energy investments, over carbon pricing. Pursuing a carbon tax could potentially alienate some of these supporters. There are several alternative proposals to a carbon tax that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while potentially avoiding some of the economic challenges associated with carbon taxes. Here are some key alternatives:

Clean energy standards require a certain percentage of electricity to come from clean sources. Clean energy standards can drive investment in renewable energy without directly increasing energy prices for consumers. They can stimulate economic growth in the clean energy sector.
Green Infrastructure Investments:

Direct government investment in clean energy infrastructure, public transportation, and energy efficiency can reduce emissions while creating jobs. This approach can stimulate economic growth and improve long-term productivity.

Increasing funding for clean energy research and development can spur innovation in low-carbon technologies. This can lead to economic benefits through new industries and export opportunities.

Implementing and enforcing strict emissions standards for vehicles, power plants, and industrial facilities can drive emissions reductions. While potentially less flexible than market-based approaches, regulations can be effective in targeting specific sectors.

Providing financial incentives for clean energy adoption, energy efficiency improvements, and low-emission vehicles can encourage emissions reductions. This approach can be more politically palatable than new taxes.

Investing in natural carbon sinks like forests and wetlands, or in technological solutions like carbon capture and storage, can offset emissions. This can create new economic opportunities in land management and technology sectors.

The “Cap & Trade Alternative”/The Carbon Tax Alternative

One of the tricky things about this resolution is that “carbon pricing” includes both carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (including carbon crediting mechanisms, which could also be used to offset taxes). While it’s possible for a country to adopt both, they often prefer one over the other.

If the affirmative debater specifies either carbon taxes, negative debaters might counterplan with ETS/”cap and trade.”

While both cap-and-trade and carbon tax systems can be effective in reducing emissions, there are several arguments for why a cap-and-trade proposal may be considered superior to a carbon tax in certain contexts:

Emissions certainty: Cap-and-trade provides more certainty about the total amount of emissions reductions, as it sets a firm limit on emissions that declines over time. This allows for greater control in meeting specific emissions targets, which can be crucial for achieving international climate commitments.

Market flexibility: C
ap-and-trade systems allow companies to trade emissions allowances, providing flexibility for businesses to find the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. This market-based approach can lead to more efficient allocation of reduction efforts across different sectors and companies.

Political feasibility: In some political contexts, cap-and-trade may be more palatable than a carbon tax. The term “tax” can be politically challenging, whereas cap-and-trade can be framed as a market-based solution, potentially garnering broader support.

Automatic adjustment: The market price for CO2 allowances under cap-and-trade automatically and continuously adjusts for changes in abatement cost over time. This can be more responsive to economic changes than a carbon tax, which may require frequent legislative adjustments.

International compatibility: Many countries and regions already have cap-and-trade systems in place. A cap-and-trade system might be more easily integrated into existing international carbon markets, potentially leading to more cost-effective global emissions reductions.

Revenue generation: If allowances are auctioned, cap-and-trade can generate government revenue similar to a carbon tax. This revenue can be used for climate mitigation efforts or to offset potential regressive effects of higher energy prices.

Incentivizing innovation: Both systems encourage innovation in clean technologies, but cap-and-trade’s market mechanism might provide stronger incentives for companies to exceed their targets and sell excess allowances.

Similarly, a debater could counterplan with a carbon tax against an emissions trading system. Carbon taxes may be considered superior to emissions trading systems (ETS) for several key reasons:

Simplicity and administrative efficiency: Carbon taxes are generally simpler to implement and administer compared to cap-and-trade systems. They can be integrated into existing tax structures, reducing the need for new administrative bodies. As noted by the Carbon Tax Center, “A carbon tax is easier to administer and enforce than cap-and-trade, with less potential for gaming and market manipulation.”

Price stability and predictability: Carbon taxes provide a stable and predictable price signal, which can be crucial for businesses planning long-term investments in low-carbon technologies. In contrast, ETS prices can be volatile, creating uncertainty. The World Resources Institute notes that “A carbon tax offers stable carbon prices, so energy producers and entrepreneurs can make investment decisions without fear of fluctuating regulatory costs.”

Revenue generation: Carbon taxes generate a steady stream of revenue that can be used for various purposes, such as funding clean energy initiatives or reducing other taxes. While ETS can also generate revenue through permit auctions, the amount can be less predictable due to price fluctuations.

Broader coverage: Carbon taxes can more easily cover a wider range of emission sources, including small emitters that might be exempt from an ETS due to administrative complexities. This broader coverage can lead to more comprehensive emissions reductions across the economy.

Transparency and public understanding: Carbon taxes are often considered more transparent and easier for the public to understand compared to the complexities of emissions trading markets. This can lead to greater public acceptance and support for the policy.

Reduced risk of market manipulation: Unlike ETS, carbon taxes are not subject to market speculation or manipulation. The London School of Economics points out that in cap-and-trade systems, “the trading price of permits fluctuates, becoming more expensive when demand is high relative to supply and cheaper when demand is lower.”

Flexibility in adjusting stringency: While both systems can be adjusted over time, it may be politically easier to adjust a carbon tax rate than to modify an emissions cap in an ETS. This flexibility can be valuable for responding to new scientific information or changing economic conditions.

Immediate price signal: Carbon taxes provide an immediate price signal across all covered emissions, whereas in an ETS, some permits may be initially given away for free (grandfathering), delaying the full price signal.