The antitrust horse-trading disadvantage argues that the FTC and DOJ are cracking-down on AI in anti-trust issues now but that they only have the drive to fight industry on so many issues, and that since industry opposes the plan (insert link), the FTC and DOJ will stop cracking-down on AI anti-trust, threatening democracy.
Key Components
1. Antitrust Crackdown Efforts
The Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) are preparing to investigate major tech companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Nvidia for potential antitrust violations in the AI industry.
The government has limited resources to fight all battles against special interest groups. This constraint forces the administration to strategically “pick its battles” when dealing with powerful lobbies.
To manage these limitations, governments often engage in “horse-trading” or deal-making with special interest groups. They may cede ground on certain issues in exchange for support or resources to win on other, potentially unrelated, policy matters.
Tech giants have substantial lobbying power and resources to oppose antitrust efforts. This was evident in their successful opposition to congressional antitrust legislation in 2022.
Implications and Risks
1. Weakened Antitrust Enforcement
The need to make deals with tech lobbies could result in weaker antitrust enforcement than initially intended, potentially allowing big tech companies to maintain their dominance in the AI sector.
If antitrust efforts are compromised, it could lead to continued consolidation of AI power among a few tech giants, potentially stifling innovation and competition from startups and smaller companies.
The document argues that the consolidation of power by big tech companies poses an existential threat to democracy. Their control over data, information flow, and communication platforms gives them unprecedented influence over public discourse and potentially even election outcomes.
Weakened antitrust enforcement in the U.S. could have ripple effects globally, potentially leading to a shift in the balance of power towards more authoritarian models of tech governance, particularly favoring China’s approach.
Potential Counterarguments
- The increased resources and bipartisan support for DOJ/FTC efforts could strengthen the government’s position in antitrust battles.
- Learning from past missteps, agencies like the FTC are adopting more strategic approaches to antitrust enforcement.
- The economic benefits provided by big tech companies (e.g., consumer convenience, free services) might outweigh some of the potential harms.